Arabfields, Maleeka Kassou, East, West & Central Africa Agriculture Correspondent — Africa has long been the undisputed powerhouse of global cocoa production, supplying nearly 70 percent of the world’s cocoa beans and serving as the primary source for traders and multinational chocolate companies across the globe. This dominance is rooted in the fertile soils and favorable climates of West and Central Africa, where cocoa forms one of the continent’s cornerstone export commodities, alongside coffee, cotton, and tea. Over the past decade, the African cocoa sector has undergone a dramatic transformation, marked first by an impressive surge in output that fueled global supply chains, then by sharp setbacks that exposed deep vulnerabilities in the industry’s foundation.

The story of this period begins with a remarkable boom, particularly between the 2015/2016 and 2020/2021 seasons, when production volumes soared across the continent’s leading nations. Côte d’Ivoire, the undisputed leader among African producers, exemplified this growth trajectory most vividly. Starting from a solid base of approximately 1.58 million tonnes in the 2015/2016 season, the country’s harvest climbed steadily, culminating in a record peak of 2.25 million tonnes by 2020/2021. This expansion was no accident, it was driven by deliberate agricultural interventions, including the widespread distribution of improved cocoa seed varieties engineered for higher yields, greater resistance to drought, and enhanced protection against common diseases plaguing cocoa orchards. Farmers benefited from these innovations, expanding plantations and intensifying cultivation, which in turn solidified Côte d’Ivoire’s position as the world’s top cocoa producer and a critical pillar of the national economy.

Ghana, the second-largest producer and Africa’s other heavyweight, followed a similar upward path during the early part of the decade, though with greater fluctuations even in the growth phase. By the 2020/2021 season, Ghanaian output had reached an impressive 1.05 million tonnes, reflecting investments in the sector and favorable conditions in certain years. Together, Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana accounted for the overwhelming majority of Africa’s cocoa supply, propelling the continent’s total contribution to global markets and meeting rising demand from chocolate manufacturers in Europe, North America, and beyond. This boom period brought economic gains to millions of smallholder farmers, boosted export revenues for governments, and ensured a steady flow of beans to processing plants worldwide, contributing to stable or even declining cocoa prices on international exchanges during those peak years.

Yet, this era of abundance proved fragile, giving way to pronounced instability in the latter half of the decade. In Côte d’Ivoire, the post-peak years revealed the limits of reliance on weather-dependent agriculture. After hitting 2.25 million tonnes in 2020/2021, production dipped to 2.12 million tonnes in 2021/2022, briefly rebounded to 2.24 million tonnes in 2022/2023, only to plummet dramatically to 1.67 million tonnes in the 2023/2024 season. The primary culprit was severe drought, which ravaged crops at critical growth stages, underscoring how climate variability could swiftly erase years of progress. Ghana’s experience was even more turbulent, characterized by a sawtooth pattern of declines that eroded much of the earlier gains. From the 1.05 million tonne high in 2020/2021, harvests fell sharply to 683,000 tonnes in 2021/2022, continued downward to 654,000 tonnes in 2022/2023, and hit a low of 530,000 tonnes in 2023/2024. Compounding weather challenges were structural issues, including the aging of cocoa trees in longstanding plantations, which reduced productivity over time, and the persistent scourge of the swollen shoot virus, a devastating disease that weakens and often kills infected trees, requiring costly rehabilitation efforts that have not always kept pace with the problem.

While the giants grappled with these swings, smaller producers in the region charted a more consistent, if less spectacular, course. Nigeria, long a steady but secondary player, saw its production rise gradually from around 200,000 tonnes in 2015/2016 to approximately 350,000 tonnes by 2023/2024, benefiting from incremental improvements in farming practices and expanded cultivation areas without the extreme volatility afflicting its neighbors. Cameroon followed a parallel path, increasing output from 211,000 tonnes in the early part of the decade to 320,000 tonnes in 2023/2024, maintaining reliability through more measured growth and fewer acute crises. These trajectories highlight a contrast within the African cocoa landscape, where the dominant duo drove the continent’s overall boom but also bore the brunt of the subsequent instability, while emerging producers offered pockets of steadiness amid the broader uncertainty.

This decade of boom followed by pronounced slowdown has far-reaching implications, not only for the economies of producing countries but for the global chocolate industry, which depends heavily on African beans for everything from premium dark chocolate to mass-market confectionery. The volatility has already contributed to price spikes on world markets, as shortages in key seasons forced buyers to compete fiercely for limited supplies. Farmers, often operating on thin margins, have faced income instability, with bumper harvests sometimes leading to oversupply and low farm-gate prices, while poor yields bring financial hardship and debt. Governments, reliant on cocoa taxes and exports for revenue, have seen budgetary strains during downturns, prompting calls for diversification and resilience-building measures.

Looking to the future, the patterns observed over this decade provide a basis for cautious projections. In Côte d’Ivoire, where drought was the decisive factor in the recent sharp decline, continued climate change effects, including unpredictable rainfall and rising temperatures, suggest that production could remain volatile in the coming years, with recoveries possible in wetter seasons but risks of further drops if dry spells intensify. Without expanded irrigation infrastructure or even more advanced drought-resistant varieties, the country might struggle to reclaim consistent outputs above 2 million tonnes annually, potentially averaging closer to 1.8 to 2 million tonnes in fluctuating cycles. Ghana faces a steeper challenge, its ongoing battles with aging plantations and the swollen shoot virus indicate that, absent massive rehabilitation programs and effective disease control, production could stabilize at lower levels, perhaps hovering between 600,000 and 800,000 tonnes rather than returning to million-tonne peaks, leading to a gradual erosion of its market share.

On a brighter note, the steady upward trends in Nigeria and Cameroon point toward their growing role as stabilizers in African supply. If these countries sustain their modest annual increases, perhaps through policy support and private investment, their combined output could approach or exceed 800,000 tonnes collectively within the next few seasons, helping to offset shortfalls from the leaders. Overall, Africa is likely to retain its near-70 percent share of global production, as no other region has scaled up sufficiently to challenge this dominance. However, the decade’s lessons forecast a future of heightened instability, with total continental output potentially varying by 20 to 30 percent year-to-year due to climatic and biological pressures. This could translate into more frequent global supply deficits, pushing cocoa prices higher over the medium term and incentivizing chocolate companies to invest directly in sustainability initiatives, such as farmer training, tree replanting, and climate adaptation strategies.

In the longer horizon, if current vulnerabilities are not addressed proactively, the boom-and-bust cycle may intensify, risking a slow decline in Africa’s preeminence as producers elsewhere, such as in Latin America or Asia, gain ground with more resilient systems. Conversely, successful interventions could herald a new phase of stabilized growth, building on the boom’s achievements to deliver more predictable supplies. The coming years will thus be pivotal, determining whether African cocoa emerges stronger from this turbulent decade or continues to grapple with the forces that turned abundance into uncertainty.