Arabfields, Habiba Masmoudi, Economic Correspondent, Tunisia — For the better part of a decade, the Tunisian countryside has been a landscape of quiet retreat. Farmers who once raised generations of sheep and cattle have watched their herds thin out, not because of disease or market shifts alone, but because the sky simply stopped delivering. A relentless cycle of drought years, punctuated only by brief respites, has carved deep scars into the nation’s agricultural backbone, a sector where livestock alone accounts for 38 percent of agricultural GDP and provides work for 22 percent of the rural workforce. Now, after years of watching the numbers fall, the government has laid out an ambitious roadmap to bring the animals back.
The plan, unveiled by the Ministry of Agriculture on July 2, is a five-year strategy covering 2026 to 2030 that rests on four foundational pillars: rebuilding the national herds of cattle and small ruminants, expanding forage resources, digitising animal tracking, and strengthening veterinary health services. For officials, this is not merely about reaching a number on a ledger. It is about reversing a crisis that has stripped the land of its most vital asset. The statistics paint a stark picture. In 2016, the country’s combined population of cattle, sheep, and goats stood at roughly 8.37 million head. By 2022, that number had plummeted by nearly 30 percent, sinking to just 5.94 million.
The reasons for this sharp decline are woven into the daily lives of the country’s herders. As rainfall became scarce, natural pastures shrank and the cost of imported animal feed spiked, forcing many families to choose between selling off their animals or watching them starve. For the average farmer, the economics turned brutal. A breeding ewe that could be bought for between 240 and 300 dinars in 2010 now commands a price of nearly 2,500 dinars in the first half of 2026, an almost tenfold increase that prices many smallholders out of the market. In turn, the national production of red meat has contracted by roughly 10 percent over the same period, falling from 122,700 tonnes in 2010 to approximately 110,800 tonnes in 2025.
Yet the plan’s architects are quick to point out that the crisis is not solely a product of nature. Years of unchecked smuggling and the illegal slaughter of female breeding stock have quietly eroded the herd’s capacity to regenerate. This is not a problem that can be solved by a single rainy season. It requires a patient, deliberate reconstruction of the reproductive base itself. To that end, the 2025 budget had already set aside 10 million dinars, about 3.38 million dollars, specifically to support bovine herd recovery. Half of that sum was dedicated to strengthening the equity of small breeders, making it easier for them to secure bank loans to purchase heifers. The remaining half funds a special premium for raising purebred heifers and calves, paid out at intervals from birth to the first calving, designed to see farmers through the long cycle of rebuilding.
The timing of this push is anything but accidental. The agricultural campaign of 2025 to 2026 has brought a measure of relief, with more abundant rains that have temporarily eased the water stress on pastures. For many farmers, this is the first hopeful sign in years. But officials are cautious. They know that a herd cannot be switched back on like a factory line. Every calf born today will take several breeding cycles to replenish the national stock, and that process hinges on whether farmers can remain competitive in a global market where feed prices remain volatile.
Behind the numbers, there is a human story that resonates in every village dependent on livestock. Families that have raised sheep for generations are now grappling with the loss of their primary livelihood. Some have left the sector entirely, their pens standing empty and their knowledge unused. In the markets, the scarcity has pushed meat prices to levels that strain household budgets, forcing the state to ramp up imports just to keep shelves stocked. These are not abstract economic indicators. They are the daily reality for consumers and producers alike. If the plan succeeds, it will be measured not only in millions of dinars but in the return of stability to these communities and in the growing confidence of a new generation of herders willing to invest in the future.
