Arabfields, Maleeka Kassou, East, West & Central Africa Agriculture Correspondent — The global coffee market is entering the second half of 2026 with prices still elevated, supplies gradually improving and weather risks keeping traders on edge. For consumers, the result could be another year of expensive coffee, even as producers prepare for a potentially larger harvest.

On August 14, Arabica coffee futures were trading around 313 US cents per pound, after falling 3.9 percent over the previous month. The market remains well above its long term averages, although prices have retreated from the exceptional highs recorded in 2025.

The International Coffee Organization’s composite indicator averaged 248.90 cents per pound in June, down 2.8 percent from May. The monthly average nevertheless concealed considerable volatility, with the indicator falling to 231.96 cents before rebounding by 17.4 percent toward the end of June.

For coffee farmers, those swings make planning increasingly difficult. A grower in Brazil or Vietnam can spend months dealing with fertiliser, labour and transport costs without knowing what the international market will look like when the beans are finally sold. In Colombia, the pressure is even more visible after a powerful earthquake disrupted an important coffee transport route and affected infrastructure serving major producing areas.

Supply prospects are nevertheless improving. The US Department of Agriculture expects world coffee production to reach a record level in the 2026/27 season. Brazil is forecast to produce about 71.9 million bags, an increase of 14.1 percent from the previous season. Vietnam is also expected to contribute to a recovery in global Robusta supplies.

The stronger outlook could gradually ease pressure on prices. If Brazil and Vietnam deliver the expected harvests, international buyers should have greater access to beans during the next marketing cycle. This could push Arabica and Robusta prices lower from their current levels, particularly if global consumption fails to grow as quickly as production.

Trade remains strong despite the price correction. Brazil generated a record $15.6 billion from coffee exports in 2025, while Vietnam reported coffee export earnings of $8.92 billion. These figures show how valuable the commodity has become for producing countries, even as higher prices have increased costs for roasters and consumers.

The demand side remains relatively resilient. Coffee consumption continues to expand in emerging markets while established markets in Europe and North America maintain strong demand. The global green coffee market is estimated at around $43.4 billion in 2026, with forecasts pointing to continued growth through the next decade.

Yet weather remains the biggest uncertainty. Heavy rainfall has delayed parts of Brazil’s harvest, while the developing El Niño phenomenon could bring additional disruption to coffee-growing regions. In Colombia, production is also facing pressure, with the country’s 2026 crop forecast at about 12.8 million bags, down from 14.8 million in 2025.

The combination of larger Brazilian production and weather risks elsewhere means the market is unlikely to move in a straight line. A successful Brazilian harvest could encourage a sustained decline in prices, while drought, excessive rain or another major logistical disruption could quickly reverse that trend.

For consumers, a return to the much lower coffee prices seen before the recent price shock may therefore take time. Roasters have to manage inventories purchased at higher prices, while transport, labour and energy costs remain important parts of the final price of a cup of coffee.

Looking toward 2027, the most likely scenario is a market that becomes better supplied but remains vulnerable to sudden price increases. If the USDA’s production forecasts are achieved and Vietnam’s recovery continues, Arabica prices could gradually ease as inventories rebuild. However, a strong El Niño or another major weather event could limit the decline and keep prices significantly above pre-2025 levels.

For farmers, the next challenge will be deciding whether today’s high prices justify investment in new trees, irrigation and farm improvements. For traders and consumers, the question is simpler but equally important, whether the expected recovery in supply will arrive quickly enough to bring lasting relief to a market that has spent the past two years under exceptional pressure.