Arabfields, Mira Sabah, Special Economic Correspondent, Nairobi, Kenya — Kenya’s macadamia industry is entering a new phase as stronger demand for processed nuts and changing export policies reshape the market, creating fresh opportunities for farmers while exposing persistent weaknesses in the local value chain.

The sector recorded a significant improvement in value in recent years. Agriculture and Food Authority data show that Kenya’s macadamia production rose from 44,364 tonnes in 2023 to 49,183 tonnes in 2024, an increase of 10.9 percent. At the farm gate, the value of nuts in shell climbed from KES 2.66 billion to about KES 4.95 billion over the same period. Average prices also increased sharply, from KES 58 per kilogramme to KES 98.

The gains, however, have not been evenly felt by growers. By 2026, farmers in major producing counties were again reporting weak prices and difficulty finding buyers, with large quantities of nuts remaining in storage. Industry representatives said more than 18,000 tonnes worth about KES 5 billion were being held in stores, putting pressure on farmers who depend on seasonal sales for household income.

For growers such as those in Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Meru and Embu, the problem is more than a question of export policy. It is a daily cash flow issue. When processors cannot absorb the harvest, farmers have fewer buyers and less bargaining power. Some have been forced to hold their produce for longer, increasing the risk of quality deterioration and financial losses.

The government originally restricted exports of raw, in-shell macadamia to encourage domestic processing and capture more value before the nuts reach international markets. The strategy was intended to create jobs, strengthen processing capacity and improve returns to farmers. In practice, the limited number of buyers has contributed to periods of oversupply, particularly when international demand and local processing capacity move out of balance.

The situation changed again in July 2026, when Trade and Investment Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria announced a one-year suspension of the restriction on raw macadamia exports. He said farm prices had fallen to as low as KES 20 per kilogramme in some cases and argued that allowing additional international buyers into the market could improve competition and give farmers more options.

The policy shift could have an important effect on the remainder of the year. If exporters are able to access markets that prefer raw or in-shell nuts, particularly in Asia, demand could strengthen and reduce the volume held in local stores. Higher competition between exporters and processors could also push farm-gate prices closer to levels that make production financially viable for smallholders.

Kenya’s previous production figures suggest there is room for further growth. If the country maintains the production increase recorded between 2023 and 2024 while improving market access, annual output could move above 50,000 tonnes in the near term. A stronger export channel could also help prevent large inventories from accumulating during periods when domestic processors reach their capacity limits.

The bigger question is whether Kenya can combine open market access with a stronger domestic processing industry. Raw exports may provide immediate relief for farmers, but sustained growth will depend on better processing efficiency, reliable quality standards and access to higher-value international markets.

The 2026 policy change therefore represents more than a temporary response to low prices. It could become a test of whether Kenya can build a macadamia industry that gives farmers a dependable market while still expanding local value addition. If competition increases and processors expand their capacity, the sector could enter the next production cycle on a more stable footing, with farmers better positioned to benefit from the growing international appetite for macadamia.