Arabfields, Naïla Mokhtari, Special Economic Correspondent, America — Michoacán has closed its latest avocado season with a sharp decline in production, highlighting the growing pressure on Mexico’s most important avocado-producing region even as international demand remains strong.

The state produced about 1.46 million metric tons of avocados during the 2025-26 season, according to figures released by the Michoacán government. That was 27 percent below the roughly 2 million tons recorded in the previous campaign.

The result comes at a sensitive moment for growers and exporters. More than 85 percent of Michoacán’s avocado production was directed to the United States in the previous campaign, with shipments reaching around 1.25 million tons. The U.S. market remains the industry’s central source of demand, making changes in production immediately relevant to buyers, retailers and consumers on both sides of the border.

For growers, the numbers are more than an industry statistic. A smaller harvest can mean tighter margins, changes in packhouse activity and greater uncertainty for families whose income depends on orchards and export operations. Those concerns became particularly visible in August, when U.S. avocado inspections in Michoacán were temporarily suspended over security concerns before operations resumed.

Michoacán’s importance extends well beyond its own harvest. The state represented about 75 percent of Mexico’s avocado production in 2025, according to USDA data, while Michoacán and Jalisco together accounted for roughly 85 percent of national output. The two states are also the only Mexican origins currently authorized to export avocados to the United States.

At the national level, the outlook is more positive than Michoacán’s latest seasonal result might suggest. The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts Mexican avocado production at 2.8 million metric tons in 2026, a 3 percent increase from 2025. Exports are expected to rise 7 percent to about 1.31 million tons, supported by sustained international demand.

That growth could help compensate for regional fluctuations, but the balance remains delicate. Around 65 percent of Mexican avocado orchards still depend on seasonal rainfall, although growers are increasingly installing high-efficiency irrigation systems. Weather will therefore remain a major factor in determining how much fruit reaches export markets and what sizes are available to buyers.

The USDA has also warned that a possible El Niño pattern during the second half of 2026 could bring drier conditions and periods of higher temperatures, potentially reducing fruit size. For growers already dealing with changing production levels, that could become an important commercial issue because size and quality directly affect returns.

Demand, meanwhile, is expected to remain firm. The United States accounts for almost 90 percent of Mexico’s avocado exports by volume, and major sporting events continue to provide powerful seasonal demand. USDA data show that Mexican exports to the U.S. reached 1.08 million tons in 2025, while exports during the first four weeks of the Super Bowl period reached a record 136,000 tons.

Looking ahead, Mexico’s avocado industry is likely to continue expanding its export presence, but the pace will depend on weather, water availability, security and the ability of producers to maintain reliable access to the U.S. market. If the USDA’s 2026 forecast is achieved, higher national production and exports could ease some supply pressure, although Michoacán’s weaker seasonal performance shows how quickly conditions can change at regional level.

For the growers working among Michoacán’s orchards, the next season will therefore be about more than producing more fruit. It will be about protecting yields, maintaining quality and keeping the supply chain moving in a market where demand remains stronger than ever.