Arabfields, Naïla Mokhtari, North, South and Central America Correspondent — Carrot prices in Minas Gerais lost some momentum in the third week of August as buyers increasingly turned to other producing regions, limiting the possibility of another increase in São Gotardo, one of Brazil’s main carrot production hubs.

The market for unwashed winter carrots averaged R$68.33 per 29-kilogram box in São Gotardo between August 17 and 21, down 2.39% from the R$70.00 recorded the previous week. The decline marks a change from the strong gains seen earlier in the month, when prices climbed from R$56.67 at the end of July to R$68.33 in the first week of August.

For growers, the latest movement highlights the delicate balance between limited local supply and competition from other regions. When buyers have more alternatives, producers in Minas Gerais have less room to raise prices, even when the local harvest remains relatively tight.

The winter crop is now advancing more steadily in the region, adding another layer of pressure to the market. Heavy rainfall between March and April delayed planting in São Gotardo and affected the early development of some fields. The consequences are still visible in the first phase of the winter harvest, which began with lower productivity than in the same period of 2025.

Recent data show how quickly market conditions have changed. The average price in São Gotardo rose 20.60% during the week of August 3 to 7, reaching R$68.33 per box. A week later, the price increased again to R$70.00 before slipping back to R$68.33 in the latest survey.

The wider market is also showing mixed signals. On August 21, winter carrots classified as A and sold by processors in the Triângulo Mineiro and Alto Paranaíba averaged R$50.00 per 29-kilogram box, compared with R$60.00 two weeks earlier. For the AAA grade, the average fell to R$78.33 from R$85.00, while the G grade stood at R$56.67, down from R$57.50 a week earlier.

At the São Paulo wholesale market, winter AAA carrots averaged R$88.33 per 29-kilogram box on August 21, compared with R$98.33 a week earlier. The figures suggest that additional supply is gradually reaching the distribution chain, giving wholesalers more flexibility when negotiating purchases.

For a producer watching the crop leave the field, the change is significant. The strong prices recorded earlier in August offered an opportunity to recover part of the costs associated with a season affected by weather disruptions. But as more fields enter production and buyers compare supplies from different regions, that advantage is becoming harder to maintain.

The short-term outlook points to continued pressure on Minas Gerais prices. With the winter crop advancing and buyers able to source carrots elsewhere, another sharp increase appears unlikely unless weather problems interrupt harvesting or reduce the volume reaching the market.

At the same time, the decline is unlikely to be unlimited. The winter crop began under difficult conditions, and early yields were affected by the excessive rainfall recorded during the planting period. This means that supply may continue to expand gradually rather than arrive all at once.

If harvesting continues to accelerate without major weather disruptions, prices in São Gotardo are likely to remain under pressure through the coming weeks, with the R$68.33 level potentially acting as an important reference point. A larger flow of carrots from Minas Gerais could also keep wholesale prices in São Paulo contained.

The main risk to this forecast is a renewed disruption in the field. Any significant weather event capable of slowing harvesting or damaging quality could quickly tighten supply and revive prices. For now, however, the market is moving toward greater availability, and competition from other producing areas is preventing Minas Gerais growers from extending the price gains seen earlier in August.