Arabfields, Naïla Mokhtari, Correspondent, São Paulo, Brasil — Brazil’s main citrus belt is expected to produce 263.15 million boxes of oranges in the 2026/27 season, after favourable rainfall helped increase fruit size and prompted a revision to the initial harvest forecast.
The latest estimate represents an increase of 7.95 million boxes, or 3.1%, from the projection released earlier in the season for the citrus-producing regions of São Paulo and the Triângulo and Southwest areas of Minas Gerais.
The improved outlook offers some relief to growers and the wider citrus industry after several years in which disease, adverse weather and premature fruit losses have placed pressure on production.
Rainfall played a central role in the revised forecast. Between May and August, the citrus belt received an average of 210 millimetres of rain, 51% above the historical average for the period.
The additional moisture helped early and mid-season oranges gain weight, offsetting a rise in the expected rate of premature fruit drop.
For growers across the region, however, the weather brought mixed results. While heavier fruit could support overall production, prolonged rainfall and a slower harvest left oranges on trees for longer, increasing their exposure to pests and diseases.
By mid-August, only 27% of the expected crop had been harvested, a slower pace than normal and even more delayed than the previous season. Producers had postponed part of the harvest to allow fruit to reach the desired level of maturity, particularly after a significant proportion of the crop developed during a second flowering period.
The average orange is now expected to weigh around 166 grams, compared with an earlier projection of 160 grams. The number of fruits required to fill a standard 40.8-kilogram box has fallen from 255 to 246.
The gains in fruit size have been particularly important for early and mid-season varieties. Yet the industry continues to face a growing challenge from citrus greening and other diseases.
The average premature fruit drop rate is now projected at 24.1%, up from the 23.7% forecast earlier in the season. The increase reflects stronger disease pressure and the longer period during which fruit remained exposed in orchards.
Citrus greening has remained a major concern for farmers, particularly in southern, central and southwestern parts of the production belt, where the disease has contributed to higher fruit losses.
The revised estimate suggests that Brazil’s citrus sector could enter the coming months with a larger crop than initially expected, potentially improving the availability of oranges for processors and juice producers.
Much will depend, however, on conditions during the remainder of the harvest. Late-season varieties still account for a significant share of the crop, meaning further changes to production estimates remain possible.
If favourable fruit development continues and disease-related losses remain within current projections, the final 2026/27 harvest could remain close to the revised forecast of more than 263 million boxes.
For farmers, the coming months will be decisive. A larger harvest could strengthen production volumes and support the citrus supply chain, but rising disease pressure and continued premature fruit drop remain significant risks to the final outcome.
The next official revision of the harvest outlook is expected in December, when the progress of the late-season crop will provide a clearer indication of whether Brazil can maintain the stronger production forecast through the end of the season.
