Arabfields, Naïla Mokhtari, Correspondent, São Paulo, Brasil — Brazil’s declining fertilizer supplies are raising concerns over the country’s next corn harvest, as lower imports, rising input costs and international supply disruptions complicate purchasing decisions for farmers preparing for the 2027 second-crop season.
Fertilizer deliveries to the Brazilian market fell 22.3% in July compared with the same month last year, reaching 3.96 million tonnes, according to figures released by the National Association for Fertilizer Distribution (ANDA). Between January and July, deliveries totalled 22.98 million tonnes, down 8.8% from 25.21 million tonnes a year earlier.
The slowdown comes at a critical time for Brazilian agriculture. The second corn crop, known locally as safrinha, is planted mainly after soybeans are harvested and accounts for a substantial share of the country’s corn production. Farmers need to secure fertilisers well before planting to avoid supply bottlenecks and unexpected price increases.
For producers, the challenge is increasingly financial as well as logistical. Fertilizers are essential to maintaining yields, particularly on soils that require substantial nutrient applications. When prices rise or supplies become uncertain, farmers must decide whether to absorb higher costs, delay purchases or adjust their input programmes.
The international situation has added to these pressures. Disruptions linked to the conflict in the Middle East have affected fertilizer markets and complicated trade flows, while higher prices have encouraged buyers to postpone purchases. Brazil depends heavily on imported agricultural inputs, leaving its farming sector exposed to changes in international prices, shipping conditions and supplier availability.
The country imported a record 45.5 million tonnes of fertilizers in 2025, highlighting the scale of its dependence on overseas suppliers. The decline in deliveries during the first seven months of 2026 suggests that farmers and distributors have become more cautious, although lower deliveries do not necessarily translate directly into an equivalent reduction in fertilizer consumption or future crop output.
The impact could become clearer during the final months of the year, when Brazilian importers typically increase purchases ahead of the next planting cycle. If imports fail to recover and prices remain elevated, farmers could face more expensive procurement and tighter availability as the safrinha season approaches.
Analysts have also warned that the market could remain under pressure while nitrogen supplies are constrained. Urea, one of the most widely used nitrogen fertilizers, has been particularly sensitive to international supply disruptions. Some buyers have explored alternatives such as ammonium sulphate, although substitutions depend on crop requirements, nutrient concentrations and relative prices.
For smaller and medium-sized farms, the timing of purchases can be especially important. Producers who delay buying in the hope of lower prices risk facing a tighter market later, while those who purchase early must commit working capital before knowing the full extent of their future revenues. The balance between input costs and expected corn prices will therefore influence decisions across the sector.
Brazil’s domestic fertilizer industry may provide some relief over the longer term. State-controlled oil company Petrobras has been working to revive fertilizer production capacity, with a stated ambition to meet 35% of the country’s nitrogen fertilizer requirements in the coming years. However, expanding domestic supply will take time and is unlikely to remove the country’s exposure to imported products in the immediate future.
The outlook for the 2027 safrinha will depend on whether fertilizer imports and domestic production recover sufficiently before planting accelerates. A rebound in deliveries could ease concerns, but persistent supply disruptions and high prices would increase the risk of farmers reducing applications or facing narrower profit margins.
Lower fertilizer use does not automatically mean a smaller harvest, since yields also depend on weather, soil conditions, seed quality and farm management. Nevertheless, sustained pressure on nutrient availability could weaken productivity and make production costs more difficult to manage.
Brazil remains a major supplier of corn and soybeans to international markets. Any significant deterioration in its production outlook could affect export availability and influence global grain prices, particularly if weather conditions create additional challenges during the growing season.
For now, the fertilizer market’s slowdown is an early warning rather than confirmation of a poor harvest. The next several months will be decisive in determining whether Brazilian farmers can secure the inputs needed to maintain production levels during the country’s crucial second corn crop.
