Global Avocado Market Surpasses $20 Billion as Export Capacity Expands, Says RaboResearch
The global avocado industry has now crossed the US$20 billion mark in consumer market value, driven by a rise in acreage, diversified supply chains, and expanding international demand, according to a new report by RaboResearch.
The report outlines how a growing number of producing countries and rising exports are reshaping the global market. However, it also warns of the potential for seasonal oversupply, highlighting the need for sustained marketing efforts to maintain demand and price stability.
Rapid Growth and Supply Diversification Fuel Expansion
“The total avocado market, valued at approximately US$20.5 billion, is heavily concentrated in three key regions: Latin America, North America, and Europe, which together account for 88% of the market,” said David Magaña, Senior Horticulture Analyst at RaboResearch.
Global avocado exports are forecast to exceed 3 million tonnes by the 2026/27 season—triple the volume exported in 2012/13. This remarkable growth is attributed largely to surging exports from Mexico, Peru, and Colombia, which together represent about two-thirds of global shipments.
Emerging suppliers are also entering the scene, drawn by the historically high profit margins. However, the report notes that increasing global supply is beginning to put downward pressure on those margins.
Strong Import Demand in the United States
The United States remains the world’s leading importer of avocados, and demand there has remained robust through the 2024/25 season. Prices reached record levels due to a shortfall in Mexican supply, where extreme heat and drought impacted fruit development.
Looking ahead, Mexican exports are expected to rebound in 2025/26, and California is anticipating its largest harvest since 2020. However, RaboResearch cautions that potential changes in U.S. trade policy could affect sourcing diversification strategies across Latin America.
South America Poised for Export Growth
South American avocado exports are on track to exceed 1 million tonnes in 2025/26. Peru leads the region, followed by Colombia and Chile. While Chile benefits from a strong domestic market, the report suggests that other South American countries still offer significant opportunities to stimulate internal demand.
Europe Faces Challenges Amid High Volumes
Europe remains a vital market, with demand supporting strong pricing into mid-2025. However, a seasonal surge in Peruvian supply has started to put pressure on wholesale prices during the 2025 summer months. As African and Peruvian exports to Europe grow, the report stresses the importance of enhanced promotional strategies to manage peak supply periods and support market balance.
Australian and New Zealand Production on the Rise
Australia, which experienced a production dip in 2024/25, is expected to see a rebound in the 2025/26 season. Longer-term projections suggest a stabilization in planted areas. In New Zealand, avocado production recovered in 2024, with further increases anticipated in 2025.
RaboResearch’s latest findings highlight a dynamic and evolving global avocado landscape. While growth prospects remain strong—particularly in emerging markets and export regions—the industry faces new challenges in managing supply gluts and sustaining consumer demand. Strategic marketing and diversified trade relationships will be critical to supporting the next phase of growth in this rapidly maturing sector.
