Kazakhstan Faces Vegetable and Potato Deficit Crisis: A Call for Reform
Kazakhstan is grappling with a significant shortfall in its domestic production of vegetables and potatoes, exceeding 3 million tons annually, according to leading agricultural expert Toleutay Rakhimbekov, First Deputy Chairman of the “Auyl” party. The alarming figures highlight a critical issue: government agencies have been underestimating the country’s consumption needs, potentially undermining national food security and economic stability.
The Numbers Don’t Add Up
Rakhimbekov’s analysis reveals stark discrepancies between official statistics and actual demand. According to his estimates, Kazakhstan faces an annual deficit of approximately 1.3 million tons of potatoes and around 2 million tons of fruits and vegetables. These numbers contrast sharply with government data, which pegs domestic potato demand at just 1.5 million tons per year.
“The figure of 1.5 million tons doesn’t align with reality,” Rakhimbekov asserts. He points to an official document—the Ministry of National Economy’s December 9, 2016, order approving scientifically based physiological norms for food consumption. This document specifies that the rational per capita consumption rate for potatoes is 100 kilograms annually. With Kazakhstan’s population reaching 20.27 million as of December 2024, simple arithmetic shows the true demand should be closer to 2.03 million tons—not 1.5 million.
“This discrepancy isn’t trivial; it affects the entire agrarian state policy,” Rakhimbekov warns. “Export/import restrictions, tax regulations, subsidies, loans—all are built on these flawed indicators.”
Import Dependency and Smuggling Concerns
To meet the shortfall, Kazakhstan relies heavily on imports from neighboring countries like China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. However, Rakhimbekov raises concerns about unreported imports and potential smuggling. While some fruit and vegetable shipments enter through legitimate channels, others bypass customs controls entirely, further complicating efforts to accurately gauge supply and demand.
One notable example comes from China’s Ta-Cheng region (Ili-Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture), where harsh climatic conditions have not deterred large-scale greenhouse farming. Between 2000 and 2010, the Chinese government invested in constructing mini-greenhouses across 16,700 hectares, targeting Kazakhstan’s market. “It seems they’ve succeeded,” Rakhimbekov notes, emphasizing the need for Kazakhstan to adopt similar strategies.
A Vision for Self-Sufficiency
Rather than continuing to depend on imports, Rakhimbekov proposes implementing a pilot project focused on localized production using mini-greenhouses. His vision includes creating a Food Belt around major cities, starting with Astana, to ensure self-sufficiency in essential produce such as cucumbers and tomatoes.
For instance, supplying Astana’s 1.5 million residents with cucumbers would require producing 21,000 tons annually. Based on experimental yields achieved in two mini-greenhouses in Arnasy village, Arshaly district, this target could be met by building 1,750 mini-greenhouses, each covering 600 square meters. At an estimated cost of 30,000 tenge per square meter, the total investment would amount to 31.5 billion tenge, with additional operational costs totaling 1.225 billion tenge annually.
However, the financial returns promise substantial benefits. Selling cucumbers at 500 tenge per kilogram could generate annual revenues of 10.5 billion tenge, significantly boosting rural incomes while lowering consumer prices. Retail prices could stabilize at around 750 tenge per kilogram, far below current rates of 1,200-1,500 tenge.
Scaling Up for National Impact
Rakhimbekov envisions extending this model nationwide under the auspices of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s “Aul Amanaty” program. To achieve this, he calls for collaboration among key stakeholders, including:
- Government bodies: Ministries of Agriculture, Trade, and Regional Administrations (Akimats).
- Private sector partners: Industrial giants such as Qarmet and Kazakhmys Corporation.
- Educational institutions: Agricultural universities to provide training and consulting services.
Key components of the proposed pilot project include establishing systems for agricultural product sales, introducing modern safety and quality standards, promoting innovation, and enhancing processing capabilities. Beyond vegetables, the initiative aims to support the production of meat, dairy, fish, honey, berries, and other commodities.
Why It Matters
Addressing the vegetable and potato deficit is more than an economic imperative—it’s a matter of national pride and resilience. By leveraging local resources and technology, Kazakhstan can reduce its reliance on imports, strengthen food security, and create sustainable livelihoods for its rural population.
As Rakhimbekov concludes, “This project isn’t just about growing cucumbers or potatoes—it’s about empowering our farmers, revitalizing our countryside, and securing our future.” For Kazakhstan, the time to act is now.
