Arabfields, Jamel derbal, Senior Correspondent, Innovation and Sustainability, Singapore — Philippine coffee production could fall below 30,000 metric tons this year as rising temperatures and the threat of a strong El Niño weigh on harvests, raising concerns over the country’s dependence on imported beans to meet growing domestic demand.

Pacita “Chit” Juan, chairwoman of the Philippine Coffee Board, warned that current production trends could leave the industry short of its expected output. The outlook marks a potential reversal from the previous year, when green coffee bean production reached 35,650 metric tons, an increase of 11.5% from 31,980 metric tons in 2024.

If output falls below 30,000 metric tons, production would decline by more than 15% from the 2025 level, highlighting the growing pressure on farmers to adapt to changing weather conditions.

For coffee growers, the challenge extends beyond a weaker harvest. Higher temperatures are making some traditional growing areas less suitable for coffee, particularly varieties such as Arabica that thrive in cooler conditions. Farmers may increasingly need to move cultivation to higher elevations, where temperatures are more favorable but land availability and production costs could limit expansion.

The risks come as coffee consumption continues to outpace domestic supply. Industry estimates put annual Philippine coffee demand at between 150,000 and 200,000 metric tons, leaving local producers unable to meet a substantial share of the market. Imports therefore remain essential for processors, retailers and coffee shops serving consumers across the country.

The potential production shortfall could deepen this gap, exposing local businesses to international price movements and supply disruptions. For small farmers, lower yields could also mean reduced earnings at a time when adapting farms to warmer and drier conditions may require additional investment.

Juan has called for greater use of coffee varieties better suited to changing climatic conditions, including Liberica, Excelsa and Robusta. Some of these varieties can grow at lower elevations than Arabica, offering farmers an alternative in areas where rising temperatures threaten established crops.

The Coffee Board plans to support growers by providing planting materials for alternative varieties. Potential cultivation sites in parts of Bukidnon and Davao, particularly cooler areas at higher elevations, could also become increasingly important as farmers reassess where to plant.

The transition, however, is unlikely to deliver immediate gains. New coffee trees take time to mature, meaning changes in planting decisions may not translate into higher commercial output for several years. Farmers will also need access to suitable seedlings, technical guidance and reliable buyers to make the shift economically viable.

Looking ahead, Philippine production will depend on the severity of El Niño conditions, the impact of warmer temperatures on existing plantations and the speed at which growers adopt more resilient varieties. If adverse weather persists and adaptation remains slow, output could remain under pressure, prolonging the country’s reliance on imported coffee.

For the industry, the immediate priority is to protect existing harvests while preparing farms for a warmer climate. The longer-term challenge will be to turn adaptation into sustained productivity growth, allowing local growers to capture a greater share of a market that continues to demand more coffee than the country can produce.