Arabfields, Lamia Cherifa, Special Economic Correspondent, Moscow, Russia — Russia could restore as much as 80% of its grain export terminal capacity in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov if attacks on ports and shipping come to an end, offering a potential path toward the gradual recovery of a trade route that has become increasingly important to global food markets.

The estimate highlights how much of Russia’s export infrastructure remains physically available despite months of disruption. Of the roughly 67 million metric tons of annual grain terminal capacity in the region, facilities representing about 53 million tons are currently idle mainly because of security risks rather than permanent destruction.

Three terminals have suffered serious damage, accounting for about 13.8 million tons of annual capacity. Among them is the NKHP terminal at Novorossiysk, one of Russia’s largest grain facilities, with capacity of about 7.1 million tons a year. Repairs there could take several months.

For workers whose livelihoods depend on the ports, the disruption has been immediate. One employee at Novorossiysk described seeing a conveyor gallery collapse after an attack, while staff were sent home as the facility prepared for an extended shutdown. The experience reflects the wider uncertainty facing port workers, truckers, exporters and farmers across southern Russia.

Before the latest escalation, the Black Sea and Sea of Azov routes handled up to 70% of Russia’s grain exports. Russia is also the world’s largest wheat exporter, meaning prolonged restrictions on its maritime shipments can quickly affect international prices and buyers far beyond the region.

The disruption has already altered the rhythm of Russian agricultural exports. Alternative routes through the Baltic, Caspian region and overland corridors are being explored, but their capacity remains below the levels offered by the southern ports. That leaves the reopening of Black Sea terminals as one of the clearest ways to restore export volumes if security conditions improve.

For global markets, a sustained reopening could ease some of the pressure created by the loss of Black Sea shipments. Wheat prices have risen sharply during the latest disruption, while analysts have warned that continued restrictions could increase costs for import-dependent countries. Russia and Ukraine together account for a significant share of internationally traded wheat, giving the region an influence that extends well beyond its immediate geography.

If attacks were to stop and damaged facilities were repaired, Russia could gradually bring much of the currently idle 53 million tons of capacity back into service. A rapid recovery would not mean an immediate return to normal trading conditions, however, because insurance costs, vessel availability, security assessments and buyer confidence would still affect the pace of shipments.

The most damaged terminals are likely to remain a bottleneck in the short term. NKHP could require up to six months for repairs, according to information cited in the industry analysis, while the condition and reopening timetable of other damaged facilities remain less certain.

That suggests the recovery could come in stages. Terminals that remain structurally intact could resume operations relatively quickly once security guarantees are established, while damaged facilities would return later as repairs are completed. On that basis, export volumes could begin recovering before the full 67 million tons of regional capacity becomes available again.

Diplomatic efforts involving Turkey, India, Egypt and other grain-importing countries are seeking to restore maritime trade. The outcome of those efforts will be important for exporters and importers alike, particularly as countries prepare for the next phase of global grain purchasing.

For farmers and port workers along Russia’s southern export corridor, the issue is therefore not only about international commodity prices. It is also about whether ships return to the terminals, trucks begin moving regularly again and seasonal grain can reach overseas buyers without the security risks that have kept large parts of the infrastructure idle.

If a durable halt to attacks is achieved, the available data points to a substantial rebound in Russian grain handling capacity over the following months. Without such a change, exporters are likely to remain dependent on more expensive alternative routes, leaving global grain markets exposed to further disruption.