Arabfields, Nadia Fatima Zahra, Arabfields, Yamoussoukro, Ivory Coast — In the vast landscape of African agriculture, a significant shift is underway in the peanut sector, where Senegal is poised to overtake Sudan and claim the position of the continent’s second-largest producer by the 2025/2026 campaign, trailing only behind the longstanding leader, Nigeria. This development, driven by contrasting fortunes in the two nations, marks a historic turning point for Senegal, a country long renowned for its peanut cultivation but historically overshadowed by larger producers on the continent.

The story of this potential rise begins with a dramatic reversal of fortunes that has unfolded over recent years. Just a few seasons ago, between 2018/2019 and 2019/2020, Sudan enjoyed a commanding lead, producing over one million tonnes more peanuts than Senegal in those campaigns. That substantial gap, which once seemed insurmountable, has steadily narrowed and is now on the verge of disappearing entirely. Projections indicate that in the upcoming 2025/2026 season, Senegal’s peanut harvest could reach an impressive 1.15 million tonnes, a notable recovery from the more modest output of around 800,000 tonnes estimated for the 2024/2025 period. This volume, while not setting new records, would be sufficient to edge out Sudan, whose production is forecasted to drop to a mere 1 million tonnes, a figure representing a historic low and the third consecutive year below the once-common threshold of 2 million tonnes.

The reasons behind Sudan’s sharp decline are deeply intertwined with the nation’s ongoing internal turmoil. Since April 2023, the civil war pitting the Rapid Support Forces against the Sudanese national army has severely disrupted agricultural activities in key peanut-growing regions, particularly Darfur and Kordofan, which have traditionally been the heartland of the country’s production. The conflict has forced many companies to halt operations or scale back dramatically, undermining established agricultural contracting systems and throwing supply chains into disarray. Access to financing has become severely restricted as numerous banks have closed their doors, leaving farmers struggling to fund sowing and harvesting efforts. Insecurity along transportation routes has escalated risks of theft and spoilage, driving up logistics costs and further eroding the sector’s viability. These compounded challenges have translated directly into plummeting yields, expected to fall to just 0.50 tonnes per hectare in the coming season, a stark contrast to healthier periods in the past.

In Senegal, by comparison, the outlook is far more optimistic, buoyed by consistent improvements in productivity and agricultural practices. Even in the challenging 2024/2025 campaign, Senegalese farmers achieved yields of approximately one tonne per hectare across some 780,000 hectares of cultivated land, a performance that was already 50 percent superior to Sudan’s 0.69 tonnes per hectare on its vastly larger area of 2.83 million hectares. Looking ahead to 2025/2026, this advantage is projected to widen further, with Senegalese yields climbing to an anticipated 1.32 tonnes per hectare. This efficiency gain reflects years of investment in better seeds, improved farming techniques, and supportive policies that have enabled the country to extract more value from a comparatively smaller cultivated area. As a result, Senegal is not merely catching up through sheer volume but is doing so through superior agricultural performance, setting a model that could inspire other nations facing similar resource constraints.

This impending milestone carries profound implications for Senegal’s economy, where peanuts remain a cornerstone of rural livelihoods and national exports. The abundant harvest anticipated for 2025/2026 presents both opportunities and considerable challenges on the domestic front. Authorities have set an ambitious target for the National Society for the Marketing of Oilseeds, known as Sonacos, to purchase 450,000 tonnes directly from producers, a goal that would represent a significant escalation from the company’s recent achievements. In the previous seasons, Sonacos managed to increase its collections from a modest 12,933 tonnes in 2023/2024 to a more robust 155,578 tonnes in 2024/2025, demonstrating progress in rebuilding its capacity after years of difficulties. However, early indicators from the current commercialization period, which began in November, suggest cause for concern, as only around 62,000 tonnes had been acquired in the first two months. Skepticism abounds among observers and farmer representatives, who question whether the state-owned entity possesses the logistical and financial resources to meet such an elevated target.

Should Sonacos fall short of its objective, the consequences could ripple through local markets in the form of oversupply and downward pressure on prices, even with a government-mandated floor price of 305 FCFA per kilogram in place to protect producers. Farmers might find themselves with limited buyers willing to match or exceed that threshold, potentially leading to financial hardship in rural communities heavily dependent on peanut income. Yet this scenario also opens doors for private exporters, who have recently gained a competitive edge following the elimination of a 4 percent tax previously levied on international sales. Exporters typically offer higher prices than Sonacos, incentivizing producers to divert crops toward foreign markets. If this trend accelerates, it could revitalize Senegal’s peanut export sector, which has endured a prolonged downturn in recent years.

The numbers tell a story of decline prior to this potential rebound, with the value of unroasted peanut exports falling from a peak of 154.7 billion FCFA in 2021 to just 65.3 billion FCFA more recently, while shipment volumes contracted by more than half to approximately 121,798 tonnes. A surge in export activity driven by the upcoming bumper crop could reverse this trajectory, injecting vital foreign currency into the economy and bolstering Senegal’s position in global peanut trade networks. Major importers in Asia and Europe, traditional destinations for Senegalese peanuts, stand to benefit from increased availability, potentially at more competitive prices if domestic oversupply materializes.

Looking further into the future, Senegal’s trajectory in peanut production appears promising if current trends persist. Sustained improvements in yield could allow the country to not only secure its newfound second-place ranking but perhaps challenge Nigeria’s dominance in the longer term, especially if climatic conditions remain favorable and investments in irrigation and mechanization continue. Nigeria, while still far ahead as Africa’s undisputed leader, faces its own challenges with inconsistent policies and infrastructure bottlenecks that occasionally cap its output growth. Senegal’s more compact and intensively managed production base offers resilience against some of the vulnerabilities plaguing larger, more extensive systems elsewhere on the continent.

Moreover, the broader context of African agriculture suggests that Senegal’s success could serve as a blueprint for other nations seeking to enhance food security and economic diversification through cash crops. Peanuts provide not only edible oil and protein-rich food but also valuable byproducts for animal feed and industrial uses, contributing to multiple layers of value addition. As global demand for plant-based proteins rises amid shifting dietary preferences and sustainability concerns, African producers positioned to scale up reliably could capture growing market shares. For Senegal, consolidating its gains through strengthened processing capacity and quality standards would be crucial to moving up the value chain, transforming raw peanuts into higher-margin products like oil, butter, and confectionery items destined for international shelves.

In the immediate horizon of 2025/2026 and beyond, however, stability will be key. Domestic policy execution, particularly around marketing and price support mechanisms, will determine whether farmers reap the full rewards of their labor or face renewed uncertainty. On the export side, navigating geopolitical shifts and trade agreements will influence how effectively Senegal capitalizes on its production surge. Sudan’s ongoing crisis, while tragic in its human toll, underscores the fragility of agricultural dominance built on vast land resources without accompanying peace and infrastructure. Senegal’s more yield-focused approach, emphasizing productivity over expansion, may prove more sustainable in an era of climate variability and resource competition.

Ultimately, this projected overtaking of Sudan represents more than a statistical achievement, it signals Senegal’s maturation as an agricultural powerhouse within West Africa and the broader continent. The nation of Teranga, already celebrated for its cultural richness and economic dynamism within the UEMOA bloc, stands on the cusp of a new era in one of its most iconic sectors. With careful management of the coming harvest’s abundance, Senegal could translate this seasonal triumph into lasting prosperity, benefiting farmers, exporters, and the national economy alike for years to come. The peanut fields of Senegal, once secondary in continental rankings, are now cultivating not just crops but a brighter future for African agriculture.