Arabfields, Sana Dib, Financial Correspondent, Johannesburg, South Africa — South Africa’s sugar industry has secured a partial victory in its campaign against cheaper imports after authorities raised the reference price used to calculate duties on imported sugar, offering some relief to local growers and millers facing mounting pressure.

The International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa, known as ITAC, increased the dollar-based reference price from $680 to $785 per tonne. The measure is designed to make it harder for imported sugar sold below the benchmark to compete with locally produced supplies.

The decision comes after a sharp increase in imports this year. South Africa imported 94,984 tonnes of sugar between January and May 2026, compared with 55,213 tonnes during the same period in 2025. By comparison, imports during the first five months of 2022 were only 1,491 tonnes.

For farmers in KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga, the surge has become more than a trade issue. Sugarcane remains a major source of income for rural households, supporting farms, transport operators, mill workers and small businesses across the country’s sugar-producing regions.

The South African Sugar Association estimates that the industry supports the livelihoods of at least one million people, including through 65,000 direct and 270,000 indirect jobs. The pressure on domestic producers has therefore raised wider concerns about rural employment and investment.

Local sales have also weakened. Between April and June 2026, South African sugar sales reached about 255,015 tonnes, more than 45,000 tonnes below the corresponding period a year earlier. The industry says the decline is part of a broader deterioration in the domestic market as imported sugar takes a growing share of consumption.

The higher reference price is expected to slow the flow of imports, although the industry says the adjustment does not go far enough. Sugar producers had requested a benchmark of $905 per tonne, arguing that stronger protection was necessary to counter imports from major producing countries where government support and different production structures can result in lower export prices.

The gap between the industry’s request and the government’s decision highlights the challenge facing policymakers. A higher tariff can support domestic producers and protect rural jobs, but excessive protection could increase costs for food and beverage manufacturers and ultimately put pressure on consumers.

The new measure nevertheless changes the outlook for the 2026/27 marketing season. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has forecast that South African sugar imports could decline by about 24% in the new season following the government’s earlier tariff intervention. If the latest increase in the reference price reinforces that trend, domestic mills could regain part of the market lost to foreign suppliers.

The effect will depend heavily on international sugar prices. When global prices remain low, imported sugar can retain a significant cost advantage despite tariffs. Conversely, a recovery in international prices would reduce the incentive to bring sugar into South Africa and could give domestic producers additional breathing room.

For growers, the coming months will therefore be critical. A sustained reduction in imports could improve sales and provide mills with greater certainty when planning cane purchases and investment. But if imports remain high, the industry is likely to continue pressing Pretoria for additional measures.

The latest decision suggests the government is prepared to intervene, but it has stopped short of adopting the full level of protection requested by producers. The next test will be whether the $785 benchmark is sufficient to reverse the loss of domestic market share without placing an excessive burden on downstream businesses.

If imports fall as expected and local sales stabilise, the measure could give South Africa’s sugar industry valuable time to improve productivity and strengthen its competitiveness. If imports continue rising despite the tariff adjustment, pressure for a further review is likely to intensify before the end of the current marketing cycle.