Arabfields, Maleeka Kassou, East, West & Central Africa Agriculture Correspondent — The cashew sector in West Africa has experienced remarkable expansion in recent years, driven by substantial investments in local processing infrastructure and supportive government policies. In 2025, regional processing volumes surged by 51 percent to reach approximately 732,000 tons of raw cashew nuts converted into kernels, with Côte d’Ivoire accounting for around 600,000 tons and representing over 80 percent of the total. This growth reflects a broader trend toward value addition within the continent, yet emerging challenges risk undermining these gains. Among the most pressing concerns is the increasing export of non-peeled cashew kernels, commonly referred to as borma almonds, which are shipped in large quantities to major Asian processors, particularly in Vietnam. This practice limits the region’s ability to capture higher margins through complete processing stages, including peeling, grading, and final packaging.

West African countries have long dominated global raw cashew nut production, contributing a significant share of the world’s supply. In 2025, Côte d’Ivoire alone harvested over 1.1 million tons, maintaining its position as the leading producer. Projections for 2026 indicate that regional raw nut output could stabilize between 1.9 and 2.1 million tons, assuming favorable weather conditions and continued efforts to curb smuggling. Global cashew production is expected to rise to around 4.69 million tons in 2026, reflecting a nine percent increase from the previous year, largely supported by African expansion. However, the distribution of value within this supply chain remains uneven. While raw nut volumes grow, the shift toward exporting semi-processed kernels constrains the development of a fully integrated industry capable of generating substantial employment and economic multipliers.

The processing sequence for cashew nuts typically involves initial steam cooking and shelling, followed by more labor-intensive steps such as thermal shock treatment to loosen the skin, mechanical or manual peeling, sorting by color and size, and final packaging for international markets. Non-peeled kernels emerge after the early stages of cooking and cutting, offering a quicker route to revenue for processors facing capital constraints. In Côte d’Ivoire, for instance, approximately 550,000 to 600,000 tons of raw nuts were processed in recent seasons, yielding roughly 120,000 to 130,000 tons of kernels. Of these, only a modest portion, around 34,000 tons, reached the European Union, with about 5,000 tons directed to the United States. The bulk of the remaining volume, exceeding 100,000 tons in some estimates, was exported as non-peeled kernels to Vietnam and other Asian destinations. This pattern extends across the region, where Côte d’Ivoire supplies more than 75 percent of Africa’s cashew kernel exports to the European Union, which totaled around 44,000 tons in 2025. Other African exporters saw their shipments to the bloc decline by up to 40 percent, as volumes redirected toward faster Asian markets.

The underlying driver of this trend lies in the differing operational models between West African processors and their Asian counterparts. Processors in Vietnam benefit from short production cycles, often purchasing raw materials for just two to three months at a time, processing, selling, and replenishing stocks throughout the year. This approach minimizes capital immobilization and reduces financing requirements. In contrast, West African facilities must procure large quantities of raw nuts during the concentrated three- to four-month harvest period to sustain year-round operations. This necessitates significant upfront investment, extended storage, and exposure to quality degradation risks, all compounded by limited access to affordable bank credit. As a result, exporting non-peeled kernels provides a straightforward mechanism for generating rapid cash flow, allowing processors to recycle capital more efficiently in the short term.

Industry experts have raised alarms about the long-term consequences of this reliance on semi-processed exports. By focusing on non-peeled kernels, West African processors remain confined to preliminary refining stages, forgoing the higher value associated with fully peeled and graded products destined for premium markets in Europe and North America. This dynamic also results in the accumulation of substantial byproducts within the region, including cashew nut shells rich in cashew nut shell liquid, an oil with industrial applications. Exporting around 100,000 tons of non-peeled kernels can leave behind approximately 300,000 tons of shells, which, if not properly managed or valorized, pose potential environmental risks through improper disposal or uncontrolled burning. Processors operating on thinner margins from semi-processed sales often lack the financial incentive or resources to invest in byproduct utilization technologies, such as energy generation or chemical extraction.

Furthermore, the global cashew market is projected to expand steadily, with its value expected to grow from approximately 9.9 billion dollars in 2025 to 10.57 billion dollars in 2026, advancing toward 14.64 billion dollars by 2031 at a compound annual growth rate of 6.74 percent. Rising demand for cashews as healthy snacks, ingredients in plant-based foods, and versatile culinary products underpins this outlook. Consumption trends favor high-quality, peeled kernels in developed markets, while Asian processors continue to dominate final-stage transformation and re-export. If current patterns persist, West Africa risks capturing only a fraction of the potential value chain benefits. Forecasts suggest that without targeted interventions, the proportion of locally processed kernels achieving full value addition could remain below 20 to 30 percent of total output through the end of the decade.

Looking ahead, several developments could reshape the sector’s trajectory. Policymakers in Côte d’Ivoire and neighboring countries have set ambitious targets, including processing up to 50 percent of national output by 2030 through subsidies, tax incentives, and infrastructure support. Installed processing capacity in the region has grown significantly, reaching hundreds of thousands of tons annually, with new facilities coming online. Benin, for example, has implemented measures such as restrictions on raw nut exports to bolster domestic processing, achieving record kernel volumes in early 2026. Similar initiatives in Ghana and other producers could diversify the regional landscape. However, the success of these efforts hinges on addressing the core issue of working capital. Tailored financing instruments, including seasonal credit facilities, export guarantees, and partnerships with development banks, are essential to align funding cycles with the agricultural calendar and mitigate risks for local processors.

Climate variability represents another critical factor influencing future prospects. Recent seasons have demonstrated the impact of rainfall fluctuations on yields, prompting price adjustments at the farm gate. For the 2026 season, Côte d’Ivoire has established a producer price of 400 CFA francs per kilogram, reflecting a cautious approach amid expectations of robust output potentially reaching 1.2 to 1.5 million tons. Such measures aim to balance farmer incomes with market realities while encouraging investment in quality improvements and sustainable farming practices. Enhanced international cooperation, including technology transfers for peeling automation and byproduct valorization, could further strengthen the industry’s resilience.

In summary, the cashew sector in West Africa stands at a pivotal juncture. Substantial progress in processing volumes underscores the potential for economic transformation and job creation in rural areas. Yet the proliferation of non-peeled kernel exports highlights structural vulnerabilities related to financing and market positioning. By implementing innovative financial solutions and fostering deeper integration along the value chain, the region can transition from a primary supplier of raw or semi-processed materials to a competitive player in high-value cashew products. Failure to adapt risks perpetuating dependency on external processors and limiting the realization of broader developmental objectives. Sustained policy commitment and stakeholder collaboration will determine whether the sector fulfills its promise of delivering inclusive growth in the years ahead.