Arabfields, Habiba Masmoudi, Economic Correspondent, Tunisia — In early 2026, Tunisia received a significant financial commitment from the World Bank aimed at strengthening its agricultural resilience amid growing water challenges. The approval of 124 million dollars for a dedicated irrigation initiative marks an important step in the country’s efforts to modernize water management practices and support rural economies. This funding forms part of a broader national program focused on water security and resilience, reflecting the urgent need to address structural limitations in water availability while enhancing productivity in the agricultural sector.

Tunisia’s agriculture continues to play a vital role in the national economy, contributing approximately nine percent to gross domestic product and providing employment to around twelve percent of the active population. However, the sector operates under considerable constraints due to persistent water scarcity. As of recent assessments in 2026, the country experiences an average renewable water availability of roughly 390 to 400 cubic meters per inhabitant annually, a level well below the threshold commonly associated with absolute water stress. Agriculture accounts for approximately 75 to 80 percent of total freshwater withdrawals, yet only about eight to nine percent of the useful agricultural area benefits from equipped irrigation systems. In 2023, this corresponded to approximately 433,000 hectares, a figure that has shown modest expansion toward 450,000 hectares by 2026, representing around 15 percent of arable land in some evaluations.

The newly approved project, formally known as the Irrigation Water Security, Resilience, and Value-Addition Project, targets the governorates of Jendouba, Béja, Bizerte, and Siliana in northern Tunisia. It emphasizes the rehabilitation of key irrigation infrastructure, the strengthening of regional agricultural offices, and the empowerment of local water user groups. By improving the performance of irrigation operators and promoting the adoption of climate-smart technologies, the initiative seeks to increase crop yields in targeted public schemes while facilitating farmers’ access to higher-value markets. These measures are expected to deliver direct improvements in irrigation services to nearly 4,000 farmers and provide agricultural extension and product valorization support to an additional 9,000 farmers. Furthermore, the project anticipates the creation of approximately 3,400 permanent jobs and 7,000 temporary positions, primarily in construction and related activities, thereby contributing to rural livelihood enhancement.

This intervention aligns with the first phase of Tunisia’s ten-year program for water security and resilience, which integrates both rural irrigation improvements and urban water service enhancements. The overall phase, encompassing complementary projects totaling 332.5 million dollars, addresses interconnected challenges of water scarcity, climate variability, and service delivery. In the context of 2026 statistics, Tunisia’s water stress levels remain exceptionally high, with freshwater withdrawals approaching 96 to 98 percent of available renewable resources. Such pressure underscores the importance of efficiency gains in irrigation, where outdated systems and variable rainfall patterns have historically limited output.

Recent data from 2025 and early 2026 indicate that irrigated lands demonstrate substantially higher productivity compared to rainfed areas. Globally, irrigated cultivation generates values that are over three times higher per unit area than non-irrigated equivalents, with average yields elevated by around 76 percent. In Tunisia, where rainfed agriculture predominates and remains vulnerable to drought, shifting toward more efficient irrigation practices could yield meaningful gains in food security and export potential, particularly for commodities such as olives, cereals, dates, and citrus fruits.

Looking ahead, projections grounded in current trends and climate models suggest continued challenges for Tunisia’s water resources. Per capita water availability is anticipated to decline further, potentially reaching around 300 cubic meters by 2030 and approaching 220 cubic meters by 2050, driven by population growth, rising demand, and the effects of climate change. Temperatures are expected to increase, precipitation patterns to become more irregular with reductions of 14 to 22 millimeters annually in some scenarios by mid-century, and evapotranspiration to rise, exacerbating drought frequency and intensity. By 2050, longer and more severe drought periods could reduce soil humidity, accelerate desertification in certain regions, and threaten agricultural viability, with potential losses in cereal production areas and yields for key crops such as wheat, barley, and olives estimated at up to 30 percent in rainfed systems under baseline scenarios.

In response, the irrigation project incorporates forward-looking elements designed to build long-term resilience. Rehabilitation efforts will focus on reducing water losses in distribution networks, while capacity-building components will equip regional structures and farmer associations with tools for better resource management. The promotion of climate-smart technologies, including precision irrigation methods and drought-resistant varieties, aims to optimize water use efficiency. Over the coming decade, such advancements could help stabilize or even expand the area under effective irrigation, potentially increasing the share of equipped land beyond current levels and contributing to a more balanced allocation of water across sectors.

By 2030, if successfully implemented and scaled, these measures may mitigate some of the projected declines in agricultural output. For instance, improved irrigation efficiency could offset part of the anticipated 28 percent reduction in overall water supply by enhancing productivity per cubic meter used. In the longer term, toward 2040 and 2050, integrated approaches that combine infrastructure upgrades with sustainable practices and market access support are likely to foster greater economic diversification in rural areas. This could reduce dependency on vulnerable rainfed systems, support job creation beyond the initial estimates, and strengthen Tunisia’s position in regional agricultural trade.

The initiative also highlights the broader economic context. In 2024 and 2025, Tunisia’s economy exhibited modest recovery, with growth rates around 1.4 to 1.9 percent, partly constrained by agricultural setbacks linked to below-average rainfall. Water-dependent jobs, which represent nearly 39 percent of total employment when including agriculture and related industries, face heightened risks from scarcity. Addressing these through targeted investments in irrigation not only supports immediate productivity gains but also contributes to macroeconomic stability by safeguarding food production and rural incomes.

As implementation progresses, ongoing monitoring of water use efficiency, crop yield improvements, and employment outcomes will be essential. The project’s emphasis on transferring management responsibilities to more specialized utilities and establishing central oversight mechanisms within the Ministry of Agriculture reflects a commitment to institutional strengthening. Such reforms are projected to yield sustained benefits, enabling Tunisia to adapt more effectively to evolving climatic conditions while maintaining agricultural contributions to national development.

In summary, the World Bank’s 124 million dollar allocation represents a strategic investment in Tunisia’s future water and agricultural security. By focusing on infrastructure rehabilitation, technological adoption, and capacity enhancement in key northern governorates, the project addresses immediate needs while laying foundations for longer-term resilience. With water scarcity projected to intensify in the decades ahead, these efforts offer a pathway toward more sustainable resource management, higher productivity, and improved livelihoods for thousands of farmers and rural communities. Continued collaboration between national authorities, international partners, and local stakeholders will be critical to realizing the full potential of this initiative and ensuring its positive impacts endure well into the future.