Vietnam on Track to Achieve $4.5 Billion Cashew Export Target Amid Strong Year-End Demand

By Ryan Habib, Senior Economic Correspondent

HANOI — Vietnam is poised to achieve a record-breaking $4.5 billion in cashew exports by the end of 2025, driven by robust global demand, strategic market diversification, and rising prices for its premium processed nuts, according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD). The ambitious target reflects both the resilience of Vietnam’s agro-processing sector and shifting consumer trends favoring plant-based, nutrient-rich snacks worldwide.

Strong Export Momentum Despite Slight Volume Dip

Preliminary figures reveal that Vietnam exported 482,700 tonnes of cashews from January through August 2025, generating $3.24 billion in revenue, an impressive 16.4% increase in value compared to the same period in 2024. While export volume saw a marginal 1.2% decline year-over-year, the surge in revenue underscores a critical shift: Vietnamese exporters are commanding higher prices, averaging $6,711 per tonne, up 17.8% from 2024 and marking the highest level in recent years.

August alone accounted for 70,000 tonnes shipped, valued at $431 million, signaling sustained momentum heading into the final quarter, a traditionally strong period for nut consumption due to holiday gifting and festive snacking in key markets.

“To reach the $4.5 billion target, the sector needs to generate approximately $1.26 billion in the remaining four months,” said a MARD spokesperson. “Given current trends and seasonal demand patterns, this goal is realistic and within reach.”

China Emerges as Key Growth Engine; U.S. Demand Shifts

Market dynamics are evolving rapidly. China has surged to become Vietnam’s top export destination for cashews in 2025, accounting for 21.7% of total export revenue in the first eight months, up a striking 47% year-on-year. Industry experts attribute this spike to pre-festival stockpiling ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival, as well as China’s growing middle class embracing healthier snack alternatives.

“The Chinese market is increasingly recognizing the nutritional benefits of cashews,” said Bach Khanh Nhut, Vice-Chairman of the Vietnam Cashew Association (Vinacas). “This isn’t just seasonal, it reflects a long-term shift toward wellness-oriented diets, which bodes well for sustained Vietnamese exports.”

The United States, historically Vietnam’s largest buyer, now ranks second with a 20% share of export revenue, but shipments there declined by 11.7% during the same period. However, MARD notes a nuanced trend: while demand for raw cashews has softened, imports of value-added products, such as roasted, salted, or flavored cashews, are rising. This presents a strategic opportunity for Vietnamese processors to move up the value chain.

“The U.S. consumer is increasingly looking for ready-to-eat, premium nut products,” Nhut explained. “Vietnamese firms that invest in deep processing can capture higher margins and reduce exposure to volatile raw commodity markets.”

The Netherlands remains the third-largest destination (9.4% of revenue), with exports growing 20.1%. Among smaller markets, Latvia recorded the fastest growth at 57%, highlighting Vietnam’s success in diversifying beyond traditional buyers.

Heavy Dependence on Imported Raw Nuts Raises Supply Chain Questions
Despite its dominance in processing and export, Vietnam remains heavily reliant on imported raw cashew nuts. In the first eight months of 2025 alone, the country spent over $3.3 billion importing raw materials, primarily from Cambodia, Côte d’Ivoire, Tanzania, and Ghana. Cambodia alone supplied $1.5 billion worth of raw cashews, leveraging geographic proximity and lower logistics costs.

This dependence underscores a structural vulnerability: while Vietnam processes over 80% of the world’s cashew supply, it produces less than 20% of the raw nuts it needs. Industry leaders and policymakers acknowledge the need to strengthen domestic cultivation or secure more stable, long-term supply agreements with African and Southeast Asian partners.

Navigating Rising Trade Barriers and Competition

The road ahead is not without obstacles. Major importers, including the European Union and the United States, are implementing stricter regulations on food safety, sustainability, and supply chain transparency. New EU deforestation regulations and U.S. traceability mandates require exporters to prove their products are free from environmental harm and pesticide residues, a challenge for fragmented smallholder supply chains.

Moreover, African nations, particularly Côte d’Ivoire and Nigeria, are investing in their own processing capabilities and benefiting from preferential trade agreements that grant them tariff-free access to certain markets. This intensifies price competition and pressures Vietnamese exporters to differentiate through quality, branding, and certification.

Strategic Response: Branding, Traceability, and Market Diversification
In response, both the government and private sector are doubling down on innovation and compliance. MARD has launched initiatives to digitize traceability systems, enabling real-time tracking of cashews from farm to export. Pilot “clean raw material zones” are being developed in collaboration with African suppliers to ensure adherence to international sustainability standards.

Simultaneously, efforts are underway to promote a unified “Vietnam Cashew” national brand, a move aimed at elevating perception beyond a commodity to a premium, trusted product. Marketing campaigns are targeting high-growth regions such as the Middle East and Eastern Europe, where demand for plant-based proteins and healthy snacks is accelerating.

“The global cashew market is projected to grow at 4.6% annually through 2027,” said Vinacas in its latest outlook report. “Vietnam’s advanced processing infrastructure, skilled workforce, and established logistics networks position us to capture a significant share, if we adapt quickly to evolving market expectations.”

Looking Ahead: A Sector at a Crossroads

Vietnam’s cashew industry stands at a pivotal juncture. The $4.5 billion export target for 2025 is more than a financial milestone, it symbolizes the sector’s transition from volume-driven commodity exports to a value-added, sustainability-conscious global player.

Success will depend on continued investment in processing technology, deeper integration with ethical supply chains, and agile responses to regulatory shifts. With strong government support and proactive industry leadership, Vietnam is not only aiming to meet its export goal but to redefine its role in the global nut economy.