Arabfields, ilhem Saàdoun, Correspondent, Busan, South Korea — On the verdant slopes of Jeju Island, where mandarin orchards have long defined the landscape and sustained generations of farmers, a profound sense of unease has taken root. As the final phase of a long-standing trade agreement eliminates the remaining tariffs on American mandarin imports in 2026, Korean citrus growers are sounding an urgent alarm, pleading with both central and local governments for protective measures to safeguard their livelihood. This development, anticipated for over a decade under the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement signed in 2012, has suddenly become a pressing reality, with import volumes surging far beyond initial expectations and threatening to overwhelm the domestic market.

The agreement originally imposed a steep 144 percent tariff on US mandarins entering Korea, a barrier designed to shield local producers from foreign competition. Over the years, this protection has been steadily eroded, reduced annually by 9.6 percentage points until its complete elimination this year. What began as a trickle of imports has transformed into a formidable wave. In 2017, barely 0.1 tonnes of American mandarins made their way to Korean shores, a negligible amount that posed little threat to Jeju’s dominant position in the national citrus supply. By 2025, however, that figure had ballooned to 7,619 tonnes, accompanied by a dramatic rise in value from a modest 1.7 million US dollars in 2021 to a substantial 20 million dollars. These numbers reflect not just incremental growth but an exponential acceleration, fueled by the progressive lowering of trade barriers and the inherent advantages of scale enjoyed by American producers.

At the heart of the growers’ distress is the fear that this trend will intensify dramatically now that the tariff shield has vanished entirely. Late last December, representatives from Jeju’s farming communities gathered for a joint press conference, their voices unified in a call for immediate intervention. They demanded compensation for the damages already inflicted by rising imports, alongside policies to stabilize supply and demand in the face of unchecked foreign competition. One prominent farmers’ organization went further, invoking the Customs Act to request the imposition of a special emergency tariff, a measure intended to curb the rapid influx of agricultural products when domestic industries face existential threats. Political support has emerged as well, with lawmakers from across the spectrum echoing these pleas, urging the agriculture ministry to monitor markets closely and provide relief for losses tied to the trade deal.

Adding to the growers’ frustrations is the role played by major e-commerce platforms in amplifying the visibility of imported fruits. Criticism has been directed squarely at companies that aggressively promote American mandarins, often at prices that undercut local offerings, thereby shaping consumer preferences and depressing farmgate returns. Farmers argue that these platforms have evolved beyond mere distribution channels, now wielding significant influence over pricing dynamics and market perceptions. In response, there have been strong warnings issued to such entities, coupled with appeals to prioritize and highlight domestically grown citrus to foster greater consumer loyalty toward Korean products.

Looking ahead, the trajectory appears ominous without decisive action. The patterns observed over the past several years suggest that import volumes could easily double or triple in the coming seasons, building on the momentum already established. Projections from agricultural analysts, including those from the United States Department of Agriculture, had anticipated around 16,000 tonnes of US mandarins reaching Korea in 2025 alone, a forecast that underscored expectations of robust growth even before the final tariff elimination. With no remaining duties to impede flow, American exporters, benefiting from vast orchards, advanced logistics, and aggressive marketing, are poised to capture an even larger share of the Korean market, potentially pushing annual imports well beyond 20,000 or 30,000 tonnes by the end of the decade.

This surge would likely exert downward pressure on prices for Jeju mandarins, which have historically commanded a premium due to their perceived superior quality and freshness. As consumers increasingly opt for cheaper imported alternatives, especially during peak seasons when supplies overlap, local growers could face shrinking profit margins, making it difficult to cover rising costs of labor, fertilizers, and climate-adaptive farming practices. Over time, this economic strain might discourage younger generations from entering the industry, accelerating an aging demographic among farmers and leading to abandoned orchards or conversions to less labor-intensive crops. Jeju’s citrus sector, a cornerstone of the island’s economy and cultural identity, risks significant contraction, with potential job losses rippling through related industries such as packing, transportation, and tourism tied to orchard visits.

Moreover, the broader implications for food security and rural vitality in Korea cannot be overlooked. A heavy reliance on imported mandarins could expose the nation to supply chain vulnerabilities, including fluctuations in international shipping, currency exchanges, or geopolitical tensions affecting trade routes. In contrast, sustaining a vibrant domestic citrus industry ensures a reliable source of fresh produce, supports biodiversity in Jeju’s unique volcanic soils, and preserves traditional farming knowledge passed down through centuries.

Yet, there remains room for optimism if proactive steps are taken swiftly. Government intervention in the form of subsidies, marketing campaigns to boost domestic consumption, or negotiated safeguards within trade frameworks could mitigate the worst impacts. Investments in innovation, such as developing new mandarin varieties with extended shelf life or enhanced flavors, might help Korean producers differentiate their offerings and regain competitive edge. Collaborative efforts between farmers, retailers, and policymakers to promote “buy local” initiatives could shift consumer behavior, emphasizing the environmental and social benefits of supporting Jeju’s orchards. Additionally, exploring export opportunities for Korean citrus in other markets, perhaps leveraging the country’s reputation for high-quality fruits, could open new revenue streams and offset domestic pressures.

In the years to come, the resilience of Jeju’s citrus growers will be tested as never before. The complete phase-out of US import tariffs marks a pivotal turning point, one that could either herald a painful restructuring of the industry or, with adequate support, catalyze its evolution into a more sustainable and competitive force. The choices made in the immediate future will determine whether these iconic orchards continue to thrive, painting the island in vibrant orange hues for generations to come, or fade under the weight of unrelenting global competition. The stakes are high, and the time for thoughtful, concerted action is now.