Arabfields, Meriem Senouci, Correspondent, Hanoï, Vietnam — Rice prices in Vietnam have risen across the board in recent weeks, reflecting stronger export demand and global market pressures that have injected fresh energy into the sector.
In the Mekong Delta, a key production hub, domestic prices for fresh fragrant rice climbed notably at the farm gate. The highest quotes reached 5,950 Vietnamese dong per kilogram, with averages settling around 5,686 dong, up nearly 100 dong from the previous period. Ordinary rice followed suit, averaging 5,461 dong per kilogram after an increase of about 82 dong. These gains come as the winter-spring harvest provides ample supply, yet international factors continue to support upward trends.
On the global stage, Vietnamese rice varieties have shown resilience amid fluctuations. Fragrant rice with 5 percent broken grains traded between 440 and 445 US dollars per tonne, while jasmine rice ranged from 452 to 456 dollars. Export quotes for 5 percent broken rice edged higher to between 375 and 380 dollars per tonne in early April, according to traders monitoring daily transactions. A merchant based in Ho Chi Minh City described intensified activity in recent weeks, with buyers building stockpiles in response to uncertainties in the Middle East that threaten to raise shipping and fertilizer costs.
This momentum builds on a challenging 2025, when Vietnam exported approximately 7.85 million tonnes of rice, generating around 4.02 billion dollars in revenue. That represented a decline in both volume and value compared with prior peaks, influenced by softer global demand and lower average prices. In the first quarter of 2026, shipments reached roughly 2.2 to 2.3 million tonnes, yielding about 1.1 billion dollars, with average export prices hovering near 480 dollars per tonne.
Farmers in the delta provinces have welcomed the price recovery, though many remain cautious after years of volatility. One grower near Can Tho noted that higher quotes help offset rising input costs, yet sustained gains will depend on stable weather and consistent overseas orders. Industry observers point to renewed interest from traditional buyers in Asia and Africa, driven by efforts to secure food reserves amid geopolitical tensions.
Looking ahead, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development projects Vietnam will export around 7.73 million tonnes of rice in 2026. This figure includes a strong emphasis on high-quality and fragrant varieties, expected to account for about 75 percent of shipments, or roughly 5.8 million tonnes. Glutinous rice may contribute another 10 percent, with processing-grade rice filling the remainder. Total paddy output for the year is forecast near 43.5 million tonnes, supported by slight improvements in yield despite a modest reduction in cultivated area.
Analysts anticipate that export prices could remain stable in the near term, buoyed by abundant domestic supply from the ongoing harvest. However, persistent increases in logistics expenses, including maritime insurance and fuel, may exert upward pressure if conflicts in key shipping routes escalate. Over the longer horizon, Vietnam aims to shift toward higher-value rice production, potentially moderating export volumes in favor of quality and sustainability. By 2030, some forecasts suggest shipments could decline toward 4 million tonnes annually as the country invests in value-added processing and domestic food security.
Traders and officials alike emphasize the need for careful market monitoring. While the current uptick offers relief after 2025’s softer performance, challenges such as currency movements and competition from other Asian exporters persist. For now, the combination of firming prices and recovering export flows signals a cautious optimism in Vietnam’s rice sector, where millions of farming families depend on steady international demand.
