Arabfields, Fatou Kouyaté, Economic Correspondent, Algiers, Algeria — North Africa’s wheat imports are expected to decline by around 13 percent during the 2026/2027 marketing season, as improved rainfall and stronger domestic harvests begin easing pressure on international purchases across several countries in the region. The expected drop comes after years of drought, volatile global grain prices and heavy reliance on overseas suppliers.
Analysts say Morocco is likely to record one of the sharpest reductions in imports following a significant rebound in cereal production. Government forecasts indicate that the country’s grain harvest could exceed 8 million tonnes after a difficult previous season marked by severe water shortages. Farmers in several agricultural provinces reported better soil conditions and higher yields after stronger seasonal rainfall earlier this year.
In Algeria and Egypt, demand for imported wheat is expected to remain high despite the regional slowdown. Both countries continue to face structural pressure from population growth and strong domestic consumption. Egypt is projected to remain Africa’s largest wheat importer with purchases still hovering near 13 million tonnes, while Algeria is expected to maintain large procurement volumes to support subsidized bread programs and food security reserves.
Traders and milling companies across North Africa are closely monitoring international supply conditions after global agencies warned that wheat production could weaken in several exporting countries during the next agricultural cycle. Forecasts from international grain organizations indicate that world wheat output may decline between 2 and 3 percent in 2026/2027 because of reduced cultivated areas and less favorable weather conditions in key producing regions such as the United States, the European Union and Australia.
The global market remains sensitive to climate disruptions and geopolitical tensions. Shipping and fertilizer costs have also remained unstable in recent months, increasing concerns among import-dependent countries. Several North African governments have responded by expanding strategic grain reserves and encouraging local cereal production through irrigation projects and support programs for farmers.
Economists believe the decline in imports could help reduce pressure on public finances in countries heavily exposed to food import bills. However, specialists warn that the region’s dependence on foreign wheat will remain structurally high for years because domestic production still fluctuates sharply according to rainfall patterns. In Algeria alone, wheat imports continue to represent a major component of food purchases from abroad as local production struggles to fully meet national demand.
Looking ahead, agricultural experts expect North African countries to invest more heavily in drought-resistant crops, irrigation infrastructure and grain storage capacity. If favorable weather conditions continue into 2027, the region could gradually reduce part of its import dependency. Yet market observers say any prolonged drought or renewed spike in global wheat prices could quickly reverse the trend and push governments back into aggressive buying on international markets.
