Arabfields, Mira Sabah, Special Economic Correspondent, Nairobi, Kenya — Kenya’s coffee sector is expected to record stronger export growth in 2026 as rising international demand for specialty beans, improved farm support programs and expanding direct sales channels continue to reshape the industry.
Industry projections indicate that coffee exports could increase by around 12 percent over the 2026/2027 season, extending the momentum observed in recent years. The forecast follows a solid performance in 2024 when Kenya exported more than 53,000 tonnes of coffee, compared with about 47,800 tonnes a year earlier. Export earnings climbed to nearly 38.4 billion Kenyan shillings during the same period.
In the coffee-growing county of Nyeri, farmer Joseph Mwangi says the changes are beginning to make a difference for producers who had struggled for years with delayed payments and unstable prices.
“Buyers are now looking for traceable, high-quality coffee and farmers understand that better handling means better income,” he said while overseeing the sorting of freshly harvested cherries at a cooperative washing station.
Kenyan coffee remains highly valued in premium markets because of its bright acidity and distinctive flavor profile. European buyers, alongside importers in the United States and Asia, continue to increase purchases of specialty-grade beans. Belgium, Germany, the United States, South Korea and Scandinavian countries remain among the leading destinations for Kenyan exports.
Recent data from agricultural authorities also shows that direct export sales are gaining importance in the sector. In March 2026 alone, growers and cooperatives generated roughly 1.75 billion shillings through direct coffee exports, with premium buyers paying significantly more than prices recorded at traditional auctions.
Analysts believe this trend could accelerate over the next few years as more cooperatives seek direct relationships with international roasters and specialty coffee brands. According to trade estimates, direct sales could represent a much larger share of Kenya’s coffee trade by the end of the decade if current reforms continue.
Government-backed programs are also expected to support production growth. Authorities have introduced subsidized fertilizer programs, lower-interest financing and faster payment systems aimed at encouraging farmers to maintain or expand coffee cultivation. Officials have repeatedly stated that Kenya hopes to double annual coffee production within the coming years.
Sustainability standards are becoming another major driver of future exports. Earlier in 2026, Kenya shipped its first coffee consignment fully compliant with new European Union deforestation regulations, a move that industry observers see as crucial for maintaining access to high-value European markets.
Economists say the combination of premium pricing, sustainability certification and expanding consumer demand for traceable coffee could help Kenya strengthen its position in the global specialty coffee market. Global coffee trade volumes have continued to grow in 2026, supported by strong robusta and specialty coffee demand across Europe, North America and Asia.
For many farmers, however, the future of the sector will depend on whether higher export revenues translate into stable incomes at the local level. At a cooperative near Kirinyaga, coffee grower Miriam Wanjiku says younger farmers are slowly returning to the crop after years of uncertainty.
“People are beginning to believe coffee can be profitable again,” she said. “If prices stay strong and payments remain fair, more families will invest in their farms.”
