Arabfields, Naïla Mokhtari, North, South and Central America Correspondent — Peru’s table grape industry is entering a more uncertain season after producers lowered their forecast for the next harvest, with unusual weather conditions expected to reduce exportable volumes despite a continued expansion of cultivated land.
The Association of Peruvian Table Grape Producers, PROVID, is forecasting 82.6 million boxes weighing 8.2 kilograms for the 2026/27 season. That is five percent below the previous season, when Peru exported 86.4 million boxes.
The reduction comes as the country’s export grape area continues to expand. Peru now has around 67,000 acres dedicated to table grapes, but growers are finding that more land does not automatically translate into more fruit when weather conditions disrupt production.
El Niño is one of the main concerns. Warmer-than-normal conditions are already affecting growing areas, while producers are watching closely for changes in rainfall and temperatures. PROVID has indicated that its current estimate already takes the expected impact of El Niño into account, although the projection could be revised as the season develops.
For growers and seasonal workers, the earlier harvest is another sign that this will not be a routine campaign. Harvesting in the main northern and southern production areas is expected to begin between seven and 15 days earlier than usual. Workers who normally prepare for the busiest period later in the year are therefore facing a faster production cycle, while exporters must adjust packing, transportation and shipping schedules.
The industry has seen the consequences of El Niño before. National table grape exports fell 13 percent during the 2017/18 season and another 12 percent in 2023/24. In northern Peru, the declines were considerably sharper, reaching 38 percent and 30 percent respectively.
Those figures provide a warning for the current campaign. If weather conditions deteriorate further, the 82.6 million-box forecast could be revised downward. On the other hand, if temperatures and rainfall remain within manageable levels, producers may be able to keep the season close to the current estimate.
Peru enters the campaign with an important advantage in international markets. During the 2025/26 season, the United States accounted for 52 percent of Peruvian grape shipments, followed by Europe at 22 percent, Latin America at 16 percent, Asia at six percent and Canada at four percent.
That geographic reach gives exporters some protection against weakness in a single market, but it also makes timing increasingly important. An early harvest could create opportunities if Peruvian grapes arrive when competing supplies are limited, yet it could also put pressure on prices if large volumes from other origins reach the same markets.
The industry’s longer-term outlook remains more positive than the immediate production forecast suggests. Peru has increased its export volume significantly over the past decade and has invested heavily in newer, licensed varieties. The country exported 86.4 million boxes in 2025/26, four percent more than the previous season, demonstrating the underlying strength of the sector.
For the 2026/27 campaign, however, climate will remain the decisive variable. If El Niño produces conditions similar to previous disruptive seasons, the final export figure could fall below the current 82.6 million-box projection. If the weather stabilizes, Peru could preserve most of its expected volume and enter the following season with stronger production potential.
For farmers, packers and workers preparing for the harvest, the coming months will therefore be closely watched. Peru has built one of the world’s most dynamic table grape industries, but the latest forecast is a reminder that expansion alone cannot shield the crop from the weather.
