Arabfields, Farah Benali, Economic Correspondent, China — South Africa’s cherry industry has secured access to the Chinese market, opening a new outlet for growers as production expands and exporters increasingly turn towards Asia.

The agreement was signed in Beijing on September 8 during the ninth China-South Africa Sanitary and Phytosanitary Ministerial Meeting. The protocol formally clears the way for South African cherries to enter China, while negotiations on a similar agreement for blueberries are now in their final stage.

For growers in the Western Cape, the agreement comes at a critical moment. South Africa’s cherry crop is expanding rapidly, with production for the 2025/26 season estimated at 5,100 tonnes, up 54% from 3,300 tonnes the previous season.

Much of that growth is taking place in the Ceres region, where orchards have become an increasingly important part of the local agricultural economy. The country’s cherry planting area has grown from just 262 hectares in 2016 to about 802 hectares today, involving 34 growers operating across 45 farming units.

The expansion has not yet reached its full potential. Around 30% of South Africa’s cherry orchards are still below full production, meaning that volumes could continue to rise as younger trees mature.

For a grower who has spent years establishing a new orchard, access to China represents more than another destination on an export map. Cherry trees require significant investment before they reach commercial maturity, while producers must also manage labour, irrigation, cold-chain costs and the risks associated with a highly perishable crop.

China could offer a particularly attractive market because of its enormous appetite for cherries. The country imported approximately 586,700 tonnes of fresh cherries in 2025, worth about $3.43 billion.

Chile dominates that market, accounting for more than 98% of China’s cherry imports. South Africa is therefore entering a market where competition is already intense, but its production calendar offers a potential advantage.

South African cherries reach the market roughly three weeks earlier than Chilean fruit. That timing could allow exporters to target a period when Chinese retailers are seeking fresh supplies before the arrival of Chile’s much larger volumes.

The opportunity is arriving as South African exporters are already shifting towards Asia. Cherry exports to Asian markets increased by 334% during the 2025/26 season, with Singapore, Cambodia and Malaysia accounting for about 69% of shipments to the region.

Overall South African cherry exports reached 488,000 cartons during the season, more than double the previous year’s level. The increase suggests that the industry is building the export capacity needed to supply China without necessarily reducing volumes available to established markets.

The initial impact on China’s market is likely to remain modest. South Africa currently represents only a fraction of global cherry trade, while Chile alone accounts for around 60% of global exports. South Africa’s share of Southern Hemisphere cherry exports was just 0.27% during the 2025/26 season.

But the Chinese agreement could change the industry’s growth trajectory. As new orchards mature, exporters will have more fruit available to test the market, establish relationships with retailers and develop demand for South African varieties.

Blueberries could provide an even larger opportunity. Negotiations for market access are expected to be completed by the end of 2026. If the agreement is finalized, South African berry exporters would gain access to a rapidly expanding Asian consumer market at a time when the country’s industry is already increasing its focus on diversification.

The experience with cherries is likely to serve as an important test. If South African exporters can meet China’s phytosanitary, quality and logistical requirements while maintaining competitive prices, the country could gradually establish a stronger position in China’s premium fruit segment.

The outlook for cherries is therefore positive but measured. Production should continue rising as immature orchards enter full production, while the new Chinese market provides an additional destination for that growth. The main challenge will be ensuring that increased volumes do not weaken returns for growers.

For South Africa’s fruit industry, the agreement represents a strategic step beyond cherries themselves. It strengthens the country’s access to Asia and could help build commercial infrastructure and relationships that support future exports of blueberries and other fresh produce.

China is unlikely to transform South Africa into a major cherry supplier overnight. But with production expanding, exports rising and younger orchards approaching maturity, the market opening gives growers something increasingly valuable, another opportunity to turn growing volumes into sustainable export growth.