Arabfields, Maleeka Kassou, East, West and Central Africa Agriculture Correspondent — Nigeria’s wheat production has climbed sharply in recent years, strengthening the government’s push to reduce dependence on imported grain and give smallholder farmers a larger role in the country’s food supply.
Annual wheat output has risen to about 420,000 tonnes from an estimated 120,000 tonnes previously, representing a 250% increase. The expansion has been linked to the National Agricultural Growth Scheme and Agro-Pocket, a government programme designed to improve farmers’ access to subsidised fertiliser, improved seeds, crop protection products and agricultural extension services.
For farmers operating in Nigeria’s wheat-growing regions, access to basic inputs can make a significant difference. Many smallholders continue to cultivate relatively small plots, often between 0.5 and two hectares, limiting their ability to achieve economies of scale even when market conditions are favourable.
The government’s latest wheat programme targeted 80,000 registered farmers during the 2025/2026 dry season. Authorities projected output worth around 160 billion naira, reflecting the growing economic importance attached to domestic wheat production.
The increase comes as Nigeria continues to face a structural gap between local grain production and domestic demand. Wheat is an essential ingredient for bread, pasta, noodles and other widely consumed foods, making higher domestic production strategically important for both food security and the cost of staple products.
The government says the next challenge is to ensure that the recent gains are sustained. Improved seed and fertiliser alone will not be sufficient if farmers cannot secure suitable farmland, irrigation, financing and reliable markets.
Land access remains one of the biggest obstacles. Nigeria’s Land Use Act gives state governments a central role in land administration, a system that agricultural officials say has complicated efforts by many smallholders to obtain or expand productive farmland.
For farmers, the problem is not simply the availability of land but the ability to access it on terms that justify investment in irrigation, machinery and other improvements. Without greater security and larger production areas, many producers may struggle to increase output even when demand remains strong.
The government is therefore considering reforms extending beyond the farm gate. Planned measures are expected to cover production, processing, distribution and marketing, with the broader objective of raising productivity and increasing farmers’ incomes.
If access to inputs and farmland improves at the same time, Nigeria could see wheat production continue to expand over the next several seasons. Maintaining the current growth rate, however, will depend heavily on irrigation capacity, financing and the availability of suitable agricultural land.
A sustained increase in domestic production could gradually reduce the pressure created by wheat imports, although Nigeria is unlikely to eliminate its import requirements in the near term given the scale of domestic consumption.
The expansion could also create opportunities further down the value chain. Higher local supplies would provide millers and food manufacturers with a larger domestic source of wheat, potentially encouraging investment in storage, processing and transport infrastructure.
For smallholder farmers, the longer-term benefit will depend on whether rising production translates into more predictable income. Better access to markets and stronger links between farmers, processors and buyers will be crucial if increased yields are to produce lasting improvements in rural livelihoods.
Nigeria’s wheat sector has therefore reached an important point. The jump from 120,000 tonnes to 420,000 tonnes demonstrates that targeted support can produce rapid gains, but the next phase will require deeper structural improvements.
If policymakers can address land constraints while maintaining access to improved inputs, irrigation and finance, domestic wheat production could continue its upward trajectory. That would strengthen food security, expand opportunities for rural producers and reduce, at least partially, Nigeria’s exposure to international grain markets.
