Arabfields, Naïla Mokhtari, Correspondent, São Paulo, Brasil — Brazil’s ambition to become more self-sufficient in fertilizers remains constrained by a structural gap between the needs of its vast agricultural sector and the country’s limited domestic production capacity.

The issue has become increasingly important for farmers as higher global prices and geopolitical disruptions add pressure to one of the world’s largest agricultural economies. Brazil depends heavily on imported nutrients to sustain production of soybeans, corn, sugar, coffee and other commodities that feed both domestic markets and global supply chains.

In 2025, Brazil imported a record 46.9 million tonnes of fertilizers, underlining the scale of its dependence on foreign suppliers. The country produces only a small share of several essential nutrients, with imports accounting for about 97% of nitrogen and potash requirements and roughly 74% of phosphate demand.

For farmers, the consequences are felt directly in the cost of planting a crop.

Rising international prices can quickly affect purchasing decisions in Brazil’s countryside, where producers must balance fertilizer needs against uncertain commodity prices, exchange-rate movements and rising financing costs. The situation is particularly challenging for smaller and medium-sized farmers, who often have less flexibility to absorb sudden increases in input prices.

The pressure has become more visible in 2026. Fertilizer demand in Brazil is expected to decline from the record levels reached in 2025 as high prices and weaker farm margins encourage producers to reduce purchases or adjust application strategies.

Market forecasts suggest Brazilian fertilizer consumption could fall to around 47.2 million tonnes in 2026, compared with more than 49 million tonnes the previous year. Some industry estimates point to an even sharper contraction, reflecting growing concerns about affordability across the agricultural sector.

The dependence on imports leaves Brazil exposed to developments far beyond its borders. Global conflicts, shipping disruptions and restrictions imposed by major producing countries can rapidly affect supplies and prices reaching Brazilian ports.

The Middle East remains an important factor in global fertilizer markets, particularly for nitrogen products such as urea. Although Brazil has diversified some of its suppliers in recent years, disruptions to international trade routes continue to create risks for importers and farmers.

Brazil’s challenge is also rooted in geography and industrial economics.

The country possesses agricultural land on a continental scale and consumes enormous quantities of nutrients, but it lacks sufficient economically competitive production of key raw materials. Developing new mines and fertilizer plants requires substantial investment, complex environmental approvals and years of construction before production can begin.

Potash illustrates the problem. Brazil has some domestic resources, but its production remains far below national requirements. The country therefore relies heavily on imports to supply farms across major agricultural regions.

Nitrogen presents another difficulty because domestic production depends heavily on access to competitively priced natural gas. When gas costs are high, locally produced nitrogen fertilizers can struggle to compete with imported products.

Phosphate production is comparatively stronger, but domestic output still cannot fully meet demand from Brazil’s rapidly expanding agricultural industry.

The government’s long-term fertilizer strategy seeks to address these weaknesses by encouraging investment in domestic production, reopening or expanding industrial facilities and improving infrastructure across the supply chain.

However, analysts say complete self-sufficiency is unlikely to be achieved quickly.

Brazil’s agricultural output is expected to continue expanding over the coming decade, which means fertilizer demand could rise again once current price pressures ease. Government projections for Brazilian agriculture point to continued growth in major commodity production through the mid-2030s, increasing the importance of securing reliable nutrient supplies.

That creates a difficult balance for policymakers.

Brazil needs greater domestic production to reduce its vulnerability to external shocks, but building enough capacity to meet the needs of one of the world’s largest farming sectors would require enormous investment and long-term planning.

Alternative technologies could help reduce, but not eliminate, that dependence. Brazilian farmers are increasingly adopting biological inputs, precision agriculture and soil-management techniques designed to improve nutrient efficiency and reduce waste.

The country’s bioinput sector has also expanded rapidly, offering farmers more locally produced products that can improve soil health and help plants use nutrients more efficiently. Yet these technologies are generally seen as complements to conventional fertilizers rather than complete substitutes.

For now, Brazil’s farms remain closely connected to international fertilizer markets.

The outlook suggests that the country will continue pursuing greater domestic production while relying on imports to bridge the gap. If agricultural expansion continues as projected, securing fertilizer supplies could become even more strategically important in the years ahead.

For Brazilian farmers, the question is not simply whether the country can produce more fertilizer. It is whether it can build a supply system strong enough to support the continued growth of an agricultural sector that has become central to the global food economy.