Arabfields, Farah Benali, Economic Correspondent, China — China’s pecan industry is entering a new phase of growth, with domestic production expected to nearly double in 2026 as more orchards reach maturity and growers adopt improved cultivation and processing methods.

Domestic pecan output is projected to reach 12,000 metric tons this year, compared with 6,200 metric tons in 2025. That increase would put production close to twice last year’s level and mark another step in China’s efforts to build a stronger domestic supply chain for a crop that has traditionally depended heavily on imports.

The numbers also show why the industry still has considerable room to expand. Chinese consumers currently use around 66,000 metric tons of pecans each year, while imports have averaged more than 54,000 metric tons annually over the past eight years. Kernel products account for about 60 percent of total consumption.

For farmers in Jiangsu and Anhui, the change is becoming visible in the orchards. The two provinces now have nearly one million mu of pecan plantations, equivalent to about 66,700 hectares, representing more than 80 percent of China’s total pecan-growing area. Many of these trees are now reaching productive maturity, providing a stronger foundation for higher harvests.

Jiangsu has played a particularly important role in the development of the crop. Professor Liu Guangqin of the Jiangsu Academy of Agricultural Sciences spent more than two decades researching pecan cultivation and working with farmers after concluding that local conditions were better suited to pecans than some traditional crops. His work helped establish Sihong County as an early production model, which later supported the expansion of orchards across Jiangsu and Anhui.

The industry is also becoming more geographically diverse. Jiangsu, Anhui and Yunnan remain the main production areas, while Shandong is increasing its planted area as growers move pecan cultivation farther north. Producers are adapting varieties to local conditions, with Jinhua being favored in southern areas and Pawnee gaining ground in northern regions.

Technology is beginning to reshape the business as well. Farmers are experimenting with intercropping, improved tree training and different management systems depending on orchard conditions. Mechanized harvesting and intelligent X-ray sorting are gradually being introduced, helping reduce labour requirements and improve the consistency of the finished product.

Trade figures suggest that higher domestic production will not necessarily mean a decline in China’s international role. Chinese pecan exports reached 3,254 metric tons in 2024 and 3,312 metric tons in 2025. In the first half of 2026 alone, exports reached 3,425 metric tons, putting the industry on course to exceed 6,000 metric tons for the full year if the current pace continues.

That combination of rising production and exports could give Chinese growers a larger role in both the domestic and international markets. If orchard productivity continues improving as more trees mature, domestic output could remain on a strong upward trajectory in the coming years. Even without another doubling, sustained annual growth would gradually reduce the gap between local production and national consumption.

The biggest challenge may come after the harvest. Industry officials have identified weaknesses in drying, storage and sorting infrastructure, which can lead to spoilage and reduce the value of the crop. Expanding processing capacity will therefore be just as important as planting new orchards.

For growers, the next few years could determine whether pecans become a more established commercial crop across China. With production expected to reach 12,000 metric tons in 2026 and exports potentially passing 6,000 metric tons, the industry is moving from an emerging agricultural experiment toward a more mature supply chain.

If investment in orchards, processing and mechanization keeps pace with production, China is likely to increase its presence in the global pecan market while meeting a larger share of its own growing demand. For farmers who have spent years waiting for their trees to reach full production, that expansion could finally turn long-term planting decisions into a more dependable source of income.