Arabfields, Sana Dib, Financial Correspondent, Johannesburg, South Africa — South Africa’s citrus industry is facing growing uncertainty after severe flooding disrupted farming operations in several producing regions during the early stages of the 2026 export campaign.
Heavy rains and overflowing rivers damaged rural roads, delayed harvesting activity and raised concerns about fruit quality as exporters prepare shipments for key markets in Europe, the Middle East and Asia. The situation comes at a sensitive moment for the country’s agricultural sector, which had been expecting another record season after strong export growth in 2025.
In Limpopo province, citrus grower Johan van der Merwe said some orchards remained inaccessible for days after the storms.
“We lost valuable harvesting time,” he explained while inspecting muddy rows of mandarin trees near Hoedspruit. “Even when the fruit survives, logistics become a major problem because trucks cannot move normally.”
Industry forecasts released earlier this year projected South African citrus exports between 210 million and 215 million cartons for the 2026 campaign, potentially surpassing last year’s historic performance. In 2025, the country exported more than 3.2 million tonnes of citrus fruit, overtaking Spain as the world’s leading citrus exporter by volume.
But growers now fear that infrastructure damage and weather related disruptions could slow deliveries during the peak export window. Several packing facilities have reportedly experienced temporary interruptions because of electricity outages and transport delays linked to flooded roads.
At the Durban port area, logistics coordinator Ayanda Mkhize said exporters are under pressure to avoid shipment bottlenecks.
“International buyers expect reliability,” she said. “Any delay can affect contracts and reduce confidence in future deliveries.”
The citrus sector remains one of South Africa’s most important agricultural employers, supporting nearly 140,000 jobs directly and indirectly across farming, packaging and transport activities. Analysts warn that repeated climate related events are becoming a growing challenge for producers already dealing with rising fuel, fertilizer and freight costs.
Climate specialists note that extreme weather episodes in southern Africa have intensified in recent years, with floods and droughts increasingly affecting agricultural production cycles.
Despite the current difficulties, exporters still expect overall citrus volumes to remain relatively strong in 2026 if weather conditions stabilize during the coming months. Producers are also accelerating investment in drainage systems, cold storage infrastructure and digital monitoring technologies designed to improve resilience against future climate shocks.
Agricultural economists believe the industry could continue expanding over the next decade if these adaptation measures succeed. Forecasts from sector organizations suggest South African citrus exports may rise by another 15 percent before 2030, driven by sustained demand in Asia and the Middle East.
For farmers like van der Merwe, however, the future now depends as much on climate adaptation as on production itself.
“We can handle competition,” he said. “What is becoming harder to manage is the weather.”
