Arabfields, Mira Sabah, Special Economic Correspondent, Nairobi, Kenya — Ethiopia is set to overtake Indonesia in coffee production rankings during the 2026/2027 season, reinforcing its status as Africa’s leading coffee powerhouse at a time when global supply is rising and prices are beginning to cool.
New agricultural forecasts show Ethiopian coffee output reaching nearly 694,000 tonnes in the 2025/2026 cycle, equivalent to around 11.56 million 60 kilogram bags. The increase represents a 9 percent jump from the previous season and places the East African nation ahead of Indonesia in projected production volumes.
In the highland region of Sidama, farmer Bekele Tadesse says the changes are visible on the ground. Older coffee trees that once produced weak harvests are now being replaced or rejuvenated through pruning techniques supported by local cooperatives and government programs.
“Five years ago, many farmers feared declining yields,” he said. “Now we are seeing stronger plants and better quality beans.”
According to industry estimates, more than 450,000 hectares of coffee land have been regenerated in Ethiopia in recent years using improved varieties with higher productivity. Harvested area is also expected to expand by roughly 4 percent as new plantations enter production.
The rebound comes during a broader transformation of the global coffee market. Analysts expect worldwide coffee production to hit a record 182.5 million bags in 2026/2027, supported mainly by stronger harvests in Brazil, Vietnam and Ethiopia. Consumption is also projected to grow, but at a slower pace, creating a potential global surplus exceeding 10 million bags.
That imbalance is already influencing prices. Arabica coffee futures dropped to a four month low earlier this year as traders reacted to expectations of abundant supply from major producers. Market observers estimate Brazil alone could produce between 69 million and 75 million bags during the next cycle, an increase of more than 10 percent from the previous season.
For Ethiopian exporters, lower global prices may create short term pressure, but sector specialists believe higher volumes and premium specialty coffee demand could offset part of the decline.
At a coffee processing facility near Addis Ababa, export manager Hana Gebremariam says international buyers remain interested in Ethiopian beans despite market volatility.
“Specialty buyers still value Ethiopian coffee for its flavor profile and traceability,” she explained. “What matters now is consistency and quality.”
Industry forecasts suggest Ethiopia could continue strengthening its position over the next several years if investment in irrigation, logistics and farm modernization continues. African coffee producers have also pledged to increase the continent’s share of global coffee production from roughly 11 percent today to 20 percent by 2030.
Analysts believe Ethiopia is among the countries best positioned to benefit from that shift. With climate adaptation programs expanding and younger plantations reaching maturity, the country could see annual production growth remain above 2 percent in the medium term.
If current trends continue, Ethiopia may not only secure its place ahead of Indonesia, but also emerge as one of the most influential suppliers in the premium coffee trade over the next decade.
