July 11, 2025 – Chicago : Corn and soybean futures edged higher in early trading Friday on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), though both markets are set to close the week with notable losses. Near-perfect weather conditions across the U.S. Midwest are boosting expectations for bumper harvests, exerting downward pressure on prices.
Wheat futures, by contrast, rose for a second consecutive session, supported by a sharp slowdown in exports from Russia, the world’s largest wheat supplier.
“There’s an oversupply of grains and oilseeds globally, and the U.S. monthly crop report due later today is expected to confirm that,” said a Singapore-based grain trader who requested anonymity.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is scheduled to release its monthly crop outlook later Friday.
As of 02:45 GMT, the most actively traded corn contract was up 0.1% at $4.16-3/4 per bushel. Soybeans gained 0.2% to $10.15-1/4 per bushel, while wheat rose 0.1% to $5.54-3/4 per bushel.
Despite Friday’s modest gains, corn is down 4.6% for the week—the steepest weekly drop since late February. Soybeans have slipped 3.2%, erasing much of last week’s rally, while wheat prices are also marginally lower for the week.
The primary pressure on corn and soybean prices comes from the ongoing favorable weather in the Midwest, which is raising the likelihood of record U.S. harvests. These would add to already substantial crop outputs from Brazil, another major exporter.
On the international front, Russia announced new measures on Thursday aimed at boosting agricultural exports after wheat shipments fell to their lowest levels since 2008. Traders say logistical delays are holding back the new crop from reaching Black Sea export terminals.
Agricultural consultancy Sovecon estimates Russia’s wheat exports in July will range between 2 and 2.5 million metric tons, down significantly from 3.67 million tons in July 2024.
However, the supply tightness may be short-lived, as Russian harvest activity is expected to ramp up in the coming days, according to market participants.
Meanwhile, China’s wheat production declined by 0.1% in 2025 compared to the previous year, official data showed Thursday. The slight decrease is unlikely to drive significant international purchasing from China, analysts suggest.
Commodity funds were net buyers of CBOT corn, soybeans, soybean meal, wheat, and soybean oil futures on Thursday, traders said.
As markets await the USDA report, attention remains focused on weather patterns and global export trends, which continue to steer sentiment in the volatile grain markets.
