Arabfields, Naïla Mokhtari, Correspondent, São Paulo, Brasil — A persistent lack of rainfall across large parts of Mato Grosso is slowing preparations for Brazil’s 2026/27 soybean season, raising concerns among farmers as the planting window advances.
Despite showers recorded in recent weeks, soil moisture remains below historical averages in much of the state, according to agricultural monitoring company EarthDaily. The uneven distribution of rainfall has left some farming areas in better condition than others, making it difficult for producers to establish a consistent planting schedule.
Mato Grosso is Brazil’s leading soybean-producing state, giving the weather situation implications for the country’s agricultural output and export prospects. Farmers depend on sufficient and regular rainfall to ensure seeds germinate and young plants develop properly.
For growers waiting for suitable conditions, the problem is not simply whether rain falls, but whether enough moisture reaches the soil to sustain crops after sowing. Planting too early in dry conditions can expose seeds to inadequate moisture, while prolonged delays may compress the time available for subsequent operations.
EarthDaily crop analyst Felippe Reis said soil moisture had improved compared with previous weeks but remained below the historical average in much of Mato Grosso. Forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the US Global Forecast System indicated below-average rainfall over the following 10 days.
The outlook suggested limited additional recovery in soil moisture by October 22, potentially prolonging restrictions on planting and early crop development.
Conditions elsewhere in Brazil have been more favourable. Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul have recorded a stronger recovery in soil moisture since the beginning of October, with levels rising above historical averages and those observed during the same period in 2023, 2024 and 2025. These conditions could support the establishment of soybean and corn crops in the coming weeks.
The contrast between states highlights the uneven impact of rainfall across Brazil’s agricultural heartland. While some producers are benefiting from improved moisture, farmers in Mato Grosso remain dependent on more consistent precipitation before accelerating sowing.
Rainfall patterns have also created challenges in southern Brazil, where accumulated precipitation since September reached its highest level in 11 years, according to EarthDaily. In parts of Paraná, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, rainfall totals exceeded 70 millimetres over a 10-day period.
Although the additional moisture has supported crop development in some areas, excessive rain can interrupt field operations and threaten grain quality, particularly during the wheat harvest in Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul.
For Brazil’s soybean sector, the coming weeks will be critical in determining whether delayed planting can regain momentum. If rainfall remains below average in Mato Grosso, producers could face a narrower window for sowing and greater pressure on the early development of their crops. The consequences for final yields, however, will depend on how weather conditions evolve throughout the growing season.
Conversely, a return to regular rainfall could help restore soil moisture and allow planting operations to accelerate. Improved conditions in the coming weeks would reduce some of the immediate concerns, although the timing and distribution of precipitation would remain important.
The latest outlook does not establish that Brazil’s soybean harvest will suffer losses. It does, however, underline the importance of rainfall regularity at the beginning of the season, when farmers must balance planting schedules against the risk of establishing crops in insufficiently moist soil.
For producers across Mato Grosso, the immediate priority is to secure suitable conditions for sowing. Their progress will be closely watched by traders and agricultural businesses as Brazil prepares for another major soybean production cycle.
