Arabfields, Lamia Cherifa, Special Economic Correspondent, Moscow, Russia — Iran’s agricultural sector has continued to expand in several key crop categories despite wartime disruption, trade restrictions and mounting economic pressures, offering some support for the country’s efforts to protect domestic food supplies.
Agriculture Minister Gholamreza Nouri said domestic grain corn production tripled and oilseed output doubled during the previous crop year. Barley production also increased, which he attributed to government measures designed to encourage local production and improve support for farmers.
The figures point to a sector that has maintained momentum in selected areas even as the wider economy faces serious difficulties. Official data released in September showed that Iran’s economy contracted by 10.1% year-on-year during the period from March 21 to June 20, 2026. Agriculture was among the few major sectors to record growth, expanding by 2.3%.
For farmers, however, stronger production does not necessarily mean easier conditions. The cost of fuel, fertilisers, transport and other essential inputs remains a concern, while restrictions on trade and shipping threaten to disrupt the movement of agricultural goods.
These pressures are also being felt by households. Higher food prices have made affordability a central issue, leaving policymakers with the challenge of maintaining supplies while limiting the impact of rising production costs on consumers.
The Food and Agriculture Organization had forecast a near-average cereal harvest for Iran in 2026, supported by improved rainfall and more favourable soil moisture conditions. Its outlook nevertheless highlighted continuing risks linked to access to agricultural inputs and possible supply-chain disruptions.
The agency estimated that Iran’s cereal production reached 19.5 million tonnes in 2025, more than 10% below its five-year average. For the 2025/26 marketing year, cereal imports were estimated at about 22 million tonnes, nearly 30% above average, reflecting the need to compensate for weaker domestic harvests and meet demand from livestock and poultry producers.
The contrast between recent import requirements and the minister’s reported gains in corn and oilseed production illustrates the uneven nature of Iran’s agricultural recovery. Increased domestic output in particular crops may reduce some external dependence, but it does not immediately eliminate the need for imported grain, especially for animal feed.
Nouri has also emphasised the role of agricultural exports, arguing that overseas sales can generate foreign currency, support producers and help balance domestic markets. Yet export opportunities will depend on transport access, international demand and the ability of businesses to operate under continued trade restrictions.
Looking ahead, Iran’s agricultural outlook will depend heavily on the next harvest, weather conditions and the availability of affordable farm inputs. The FAO’s preliminary forecast for the 2026/27 marketing year put wheat import requirements at 3 million tonnes, around 25% below the five-year average, reflecting expectations of improved domestic production and carryover stocks.
If favourable growing conditions continue and farmers can obtain the inputs they need, Iran could gradually reduce its dependence on imported wheat. However, sustained disruption to shipping, higher fertiliser prices or renewed pressure on the currency could weaken those prospects and push food costs higher.
For households and agricultural businesses alike, the central question is whether gains in production can translate into more reliable supplies and affordable food. Iran’s recent agricultural performance offers grounds for cautious optimism, but the sector’s longer-term resilience will depend on more than higher harvest figures alone.
