Arabfields, Mira Sabah, Special Economic Correspondent, Nairobi, Kenya — Kenyan avocado farmers are set to harvest approximately 727,000 tonnes of the fruit in 2026, marking a steady expansion in one of the country’s key export crops.
This projection represents an increase of about 4.8 percent from the record 694,000 tonnes produced in 2025. The anticipated rise comes after a period of volatility, including a dip in output during 2024, and reflects the maturation of newly planted orchards across the country.
Smallholder farmers like Esther Kamau, who cultivates avocados on a few hectares in central Kenya, have witnessed the benefits of recent improvements firsthand. She notes that better access to quality seedlings and advice on farm management has helped boost yields on her plot, allowing her family to earn more from sales to local buyers and exporters.
The growth in cultivated area has played a central role. Since 2020, the land dedicated to avocado farming has expanded at a compound annual rate of around 6 percent. Government initiatives at both national and county levels have supported this trend through subsidies for young plants and fertilizers, while designating the crop as a priority for export earnings.
Producers benefit from two main harvest seasons each year: the primary one stretching from March to August, followed by a secondary period typically running from October to December. These staggered cycles help maintain a relatively consistent supply throughout much of the year.
Looking ahead, industry observers expect continued expansion in the coming years, driven by sustained demand in international markets and ongoing efforts to enhance productivity. If current trends persist, production could stabilize at elevated levels, providing a reliable income source for thousands of rural households.
On the export front, shipments are forecast to rebound to around 130,000 tonnes in 2026, up from 121,000 tonnes the previous year. Europe remains the dominant destination for Kenyan avocados, prized for their quality and flavor.
However, challenges persist. The sector faced significant headwinds in 2025, when exports declined notably due to quality concerns linked to premature harvesting in some areas and prolonged shipping disruptions. Attacks on vessels in the Red Sea forced many ships to reroute, nearly doubling transit times to European ports and sharply increasing costs.
Farmers and exporters alike hope for calmer conditions in global shipping lanes. While the 2026 outlook appears more positive, uncertainties around maritime security could still influence final volumes. Processors have also ramped up activity, with avocado oil output rising considerably in recent seasons to meet demand from high-income markets.
Kenya maintains its position as a leading avocado producer on the African continent, supported by strong interest from small-scale growers. The fruit not only generates foreign exchange but also contributes to local food security and employment in farming communities.
As the 2026 season approaches, stakeholders across the value chain, from field workers to logistics operators, are preparing for what could be another productive year. With careful attention to quality standards and farm practices, the industry appears well positioned to build on its recent gains and explore further opportunities in the global marketplace.
