Arabfields, Naïla Mokhtari, Special Economic Correspondent, America — As a persistent heatwave continues to grip Peru’s northwestern coast, farmers in the key agricultural region of Lambayeque are facing a growing crisis. The soaring temperatures, driven by the El Niño phenomenon, threaten to severely damage this year’s mango and avocado harvests, two of the country’s most lucrative export crops. With the hot spell forecast to last through August, local producers and meteorological experts are sounding the alarm over the potential for significant economic losses.
The National Meteorology and Hydrology Service has reported exceptionally high temperatures for this time of year. The district of Olmos recorded highs of 36°C in July, while Motupe and Jayanca experienced temperatures between 33°C and 35°C. This extreme winter heat, which has already carried into August with temperatures remaining between 30°C and 33°C in some areas, is far from the cooler conditions typically needed for crops to thrive. The situation is so acute that nighttime temperatures are also unusually high, hovering between 18 and 21°C, providing little relief for the region’s agriculture.
The primary concern centers on the current flowering stage of both mango and avocado crops, a period extremely sensitive to temperature fluctuations. Joel Alania, a meteorological spokesperson in Lambayeque, explained that the excessive heat could impede flower development, which would directly translate to reduced future yields and substantial economic hardship for farmers. The situation is already critical in other regions; in the neighboring Piura region, agricultural specialist Milton Calle noted that mango flowering is failing to take off, with the rate remaining around just ten percent as of early August, with little chance of significant improvement.
The impact of El Niño on Peru’s agricultural sector is becoming more evident in national trade figures. While the value of agricultural exports has shown resilience, with the Ministry of Agrarian Development and Irrigation reporting exports reached US$3.899 billion between January and April 2026, the physical volume of shipments is beginning to suffer. Data from the Association of Exporters of Peru shows that although the value of exports grew by 4.8% to $4.52 billion in the first five months of 2026, the total volume declined by one percent. This decline signals that the extreme weather is starting to take a tangible toll on production capacity. More specifically, regional agricultural authorities in Lambayeque have already estimated approximately twenty percent losses in export crops due to the adverse climatic conditions.
Looking ahead, the forecasts are disconcerting. The El Niño event, which is causing the current temperature anomalies, is expected to persist. Meteorological authorities have indicated that a moderate-intensity event is already underway and could extend through the end of 2026 and into early 2027. This is compounded by warnings from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which confirmed a strong El Niño with a sixty-three percent probability of reaching a “very strong” intensity between November 2026 and January 2027. Such a powerful event could bring not only more heat but also heavy rainfall and mudslides to the northern coast, posing even graver risks to agriculture and infrastructure.
In response to this bleak outlook, experts and local authorities are urging adaptation. Patricia Ocampo Escalante, the regional manager of Agriculture for Lambayeque, acknowledged that the effects of climate change are a reality and that the sector must build resilience. She noted that large agro-export companies are already evaluating the shift to new crop varieties that are better adapted to higher temperatures and implementing improved agronomic practices to help plantations withstand the adverse conditions. For the immediate future, meteorological services have recommended that producers stay informed on weather reports and adopt preventive measures to minimize the impact on their livelihoods.
