Arabfields, Sana Dib, Financial Correspondent, Johannesburg, South Africa —  The Fortnightly Joint Grape Marketing Forum convened by the South African Table Grape Industry on 13 February 2026 offered a detailed assessment of the current export season, revealing encouraging advancements in volumes alongside persistent logistical considerations that will influence outcomes in the coming weeks. As the industry navigates variable regional conditions and port performance metrics, the overall crop estimate for inspected volumes destined for export has remained stable at 79.4 million cartons, providing a solid foundation for projections of a robust full-season performance. With packing operations now completed in the Northern Provinces and the Orange River regions, focus has shifted to the Olifants River, Berg River, and Hex River areas, where producers continue to demonstrate commitment to quality and timely execution.

Up to week six, national inspection volumes totaled 69 million cartons, reflecting a 14 percent increase from the 60.72 million cartons recorded at the equivalent point in the previous year. This acceleration in inspections signals stronger early-season ripening patterns in certain districts and effective coordination across the supply chain. In parallel, exported volumes reached 54.32 million cartons by the end of week six, a 10 percent improvement over the 49.29 million cartons achieved in the same period last year. When combined with the additional 1.6 million cartons dispatched during week seven, the cumulative shipments to date surpass 55.9 million cartons. The predominant destinations for these volumes have been the European Union, the United Kingdom, Canada, and the Middle East, markets that continue to value the consistency and appeal of South African table grapes. Among the varieties contributing most significantly, the top three packed during week six were Sugrathirtyfive, known commercially as AUTUMNCRISP, followed by Crimson Seedless and Allison, while the leading exported varieties for that week comprised Sweet Globe, Sweet Celebration, and Sugrathirtyfive. These selections underscore the growing preference for high-performing seedless cultivars that align with evolving consumer demands for flavor, appearance, and convenience.

The gap between inspected and exported figures at the conclusion of week six is explained primarily by approximately 2 million cartons remaining in cold storage and the 1.6 million cartons already loaded onto vessels that sailed in week seven, including the BARRINGTON ISLAND, the BATIC SPRING, and the CMA CGA KRIBI. Such buffers are integral to maintaining flexibility during peak periods and minimizing disruptions. Productivity at the Cape Town Container Terminal, measured by gross crane moves per hour, averaged 14 during week six, falling short of the established target of 19, yet this figure represents an operational reality that the industry continues to address through sustained stakeholder engagement. The fruit sector participated actively in the Western Cape Government’s annual Port of Cape Town Stakeholder Dialogue held on 12 February 2026, where representatives emphasized the operational constraints and economic repercussions of port inefficiencies on the present season, including potential reputational risks for South African exports.

Turning to regional performances, the Olifants River area has packed 3.58 million cartons up to week six, which is 5 percent below the level observed at the same stage last year. The leading inspected varieties during week six in this region were Sugrathirtyfive, Crimson Seedless, and Sugranineteen, known as SCARLOTTA SEEDLESS. Having now completed 98 percent of its expected seasonal volumes, the Olifants River is approaching the final stages of packing, with remaining producers anticipating completion within the next two to three weeks. Those still active have expressed confidence in achieving their full crop estimates. The prevailing warm, dry, and windy conditions have supported grape health, resulting in bunches that appear strong and marketable, a factor that bodes well for quality retention as the season concludes in this district. Producers foresee a smooth wind-down that will contribute reliably to national totals without significant shortfalls.

In the Berg River region, packing volumes have reached 16.81 million cartons up to week six, representing a substantial 20 percent increase compared to the prior year. Top inspected varieties for week six included Sugrathirtyfive, Sugranineteen, and Crimson Seedless, with late cultivars now entering the packing stream. The region stands at 86 percent of its anticipated seasonal volumes, maintaining steady progress even after rainfall experienced during week six. Forecasts for week seven indicate warmer and drier weather, which should facilitate continued operations and support the quality of late-maturing grapes. This upward trajectory positions the Berg River as a key contributor to the national surplus observed thus far and suggests that the area will comfortably fulfill or potentially exceed its targets, provided weather patterns remain supportive.

The Hex River region has recorded 16.04 million cartons packed up to week six, a 21 percent rise from the corresponding period last year. Dominant inspected varieties during week six were Crimson Seedless, Sugrathirtyfive, and Sweet Celebration. At approximately 63 percent of expected volumes, the region is advancing positively, with grape health remaining favorable despite rainy conditions in week six. Light winds assisted in drying bunches post-rainfall, and the outlook for week seven points to dry, warm weather that will further enhance pack-out quality. Market feedback on arrivals from this area has been encouraging, reinforcing the reputation of Hex River grapes for consistency. As packing intensifies in the coming weeks, this region is expected to accelerate its contribution, helping to sustain the national crop estimate without downward revisions.

On the broader Southern Hemisphere stage, comparative data highlight South Africa’s competitive standing. Chile has exported 17.11 million cartons up to week six, 32 percent fewer than in the previous year, with the majority directed to the United States, Mexico, and Latin America, accounting for 78 percent of its volumes. The composition has been led by white seedless varieties at 47 percent, followed by red seedless at 37 percent, black seedless at 9 percent, red seeded at 5 percent, and mixed at 2 percent. Peru, by contrast, has achieved 140.5 million cartons exported, approximately 3 percent above last year’s level for the same period, also channeling 68 percent of shipments to the United States, Mexico, and Latin America. Its variety profile features white seedless at 57 percent, red seedless at 23 percent, red seeded at 10 percent, mixed at 7 percent, and black seedless at 3 percent. These dynamics illustrate a varied competitive landscape, where South Africa’s focus on premium seedless offerings may differentiate it in shared and emerging markets.

Logistical considerations remain central to the season’s success. Wind-related delays at the Cape Town Container Terminal totaled 37 hours in week six, improved from 48 hours in the equivalent week of the prior year, yet average productivity continues to lag behind targets. Recent announcements from port authorities include the scheduled arrival of a new mobile crane for the Cape Town Multi-Purpose Terminal in April 2026, the replacement of spreaders across all ship-to-shore cranes at the container terminal within the next five months, and the planned replacement of two ship-to-shore cranes later in the year. These upgrades are anticipated to bolster capacity and reliability. During the stakeholder dialogue, industry participants detailed the tangible effects of current challenges on export schedules and economic returns, advocating for enhanced resilience within the port ecosystem and exploring avenues for private-sector involvement. Port officials acknowledged the disruptions and outlined mitigation measures, fostering a collaborative framework that will inform ongoing proposals and engagements.

A dedicated logistics model update provided further granularity on forward projections. Inspections to date exceed initial forecasts by approximately 13 percent, inclusive of Namibian volumes, largely attributable to earlier ripening across select regions. Between weeks eight and eleven, the model anticipates around 2,890 containers requiring inspection, underscoring the necessity for consistent port throughput to accommodate peak flows. Three distinct scenarios were evaluated based on prevailing shipping schedules. In the optimal scenario, characterized by no delays at the Cape Town Container Terminal, utilization rates would reach 96 percent at that facility, 3 percent at Durban, and 1 percent at Eastern Cape ports, enabling a total of 5,239 containers to be exported. The medium-impact scenario, incorporating delays during week eight, projects 95 percent utilization at Cape Town, 4 percent at Durban, and 1 percent at Eastern Cape ports, resulting in 5,093 containers exported. Under the high-impact scenario, with delays extending through weeks eight and nine, utilization would shift to 80 percent at Cape Town, 4 percent at Durban, and 16 percent at Eastern Cape ports, yielding 5,127 containers in total. Favorable weather conditions could allow up to 5,003 containers to move through the Cape Town Container Terminal alone, whereas wind-related interruptions might reduce this by between 112 and 146 containers relative to the optimal case. These projections emphasize the critical role of minimizing disruptions to maximize seasonal throughput and protect returns.

An interactive logistics model dashboard, accessible free of charge to members of the relevant industry bodies, supplies real-time inspection data, stock levels, and utilization recommendations, with updates issued regularly throughout the season. While the model outputs are indicative and derived from aggregated information and simplifying assumptions, they serve as valuable guidance when combined with operational expertise and stakeholder consultation.

Insights shared by a guest speaker with extensive experience in Northern European grape markets illuminated shifting dynamics in key destinations. The 2025-2026 European arrival patterns have exhibited a more supply-driven character than in recent seasons, influenced by prolonged availability from Italian and Spanish origins in addition to supply-chain delays, resulting in downward pressure on average returns. Demand is increasingly oriented toward newer, higher-performing red and white seedless varieties, moving away from traditional cultivars, with premium white seedless types receiving particularly favorable responses regarding taste and post-arrival condition. South Africa occupies a strategically advantageous position in the United Kingdom and broader European markets, which remain vital for long-term sustainability and value capture. Moving forward, success will hinge on precise varietal selection and clear market differentiation, determining whether South African grapes are positioned as standard or premium offerings relative to competitors. Identified opportunities include the structured yet volume-limited United Kingdom market, constrained prospects in North America due to tariffs and rivalry with Peru and Chile, Southeast Asia developments tied to Chinese supply volumes, Middle Eastern potential moderated by Indian competition, and promising scope in Europe during the later season for selected premium white and red seedless categories.

Looking ahead, the data support optimistic projections for the remainder of the 2026 season. With regional producers on schedule to complete packing and meet their estimates, the national total of 79.4 million inspected cartons appears attainable, potentially translating into exported volumes that surpass prior-year benchmarks once full logistics capacity is realized. The logistics model indicates that adherence to the optimal scenario could facilitate the export of over 5,200 containers in the critical weeks eight through eleven, bolstering cumulative shipments and enabling the industry to capitalize on remaining market windows. Planned port infrastructure enhancements, commencing as early as April 2026, are expected to elevate productivity and reduce delay risks, thereby safeguarding economic outcomes and mitigating reputational concerns. In the marketplace, the ongoing transition toward premium varieties such as Sweet Globe, Sweet Celebration, and Sugrathirtyfive positions South African exporters favorably to command stronger returns, particularly in Europe during the later phase, where demand for high-quality seedless options is projected to strengthen. By prioritizing varietal innovation, maintaining rigorous quality standards, and advancing collaborative solutions for port efficiency, the South African table grape sector is well equipped to navigate global competition and secure sustained growth in value and volume for seasons to come. Continued vigilance regarding weather patterns and operational performance will be essential to convert current momentum into a comprehensively successful campaign.