Arabfields, Sana Dib, Financial Correspondent, Johannesburg, South Africa — The South African table grape industry has made impressive strides in the early part of the 2025/26 season, with inspection volumes reaching 55.4 million cartons (4.5 kg equivalents) by Week 4, a 17 percent increase over the 47.2 million cartons recorded at the same point last year. Exports have remained steady, with 35 million cartons confirmed departed by Week 4 and a further 12.1 million cartons shipped in Week 5, pushing total shipped volumes past 47 million cartons. The national crop estimate stands firm at 79.4 million cartons, and current progress suggests the industry is well positioned to meet, or potentially exceed, this target if weather and logistics remain supportive.
Early-season regions have already outperformed expectations. The Northern Provinces have packed 5.7 million cartons, 22 percent ahead of last year and now at 112 percent of their seasonal estimate, with the season essentially complete except for minor residual volumes. The Orange River region, the largest contributor so far with 26.51 million cartons, is 8 percent ahead of last season and has reached 103 percent of its estimate, with most producers having finished packing. These over-deliveries in the north have offset slower starts elsewhere and driven the national volumes above initial forecasts.
Later-season regions are now accelerating. The Berg River has packed 11.1 million cartons, 29 percent higher than last year and representing 57 percent of its estimate, with producers reporting healthy grapes of excellent quality and some early shifts to late cultivars due to favourable ripening. The Hex River, packing 9.55 million cartons or 46 percent more than the comparable period last year, has reached 38 percent of its estimate and is benefiting from good berry size, colour development, and the ability to harvest at optimal ripeness. The Olifants River, while 8 percent behind last year at 2.57 million cartons and 70 percent of its estimate, is transitioning to later cultivars under dry but favourable conditions, with grape health remaining strong.
Popular varieties continue to dominate packing and export flows. Sweet Celebration led Week 4 inspections with 1.7 million cartons, followed closely by Sweet Globe at 1.34 million cartons and Crimson Seedless at 728,642 cartons. On the export side, Sweet Globe topped the week with 524,554 cartons, followed by Sweet Celebration at 495,723 cartons and Sugrasixteen (Sable Seedless) at 259,754 cartons. The EU, UK, and North America remain the primary destinations, absorbing the bulk of shipped volumes.
Logistics performance has shown encouraging signs. The Cape Town Container Terminal recorded 60 hours of wind delays in Week 4, an improvement over the 85 hours experienced last year, and achieved the target gross crane productivity of 19 moves per hour. Transnet’s newly signed memorandum of understanding with Port of Antwerp-Bruges and the Antwerp/Flanders Port Training Center signals longer-term commitment to modernisation, digitalisation, and sustainability. A second CSIR-led wind forecasting project is also underway to further reduce weather-related disruptions.
The industry’s logistics model, updated with current data, indicates inspections running approximately 14 percent above forecast, largely due to earlier ripening. Projections for the critical Weeks 6 to 8 period highlight the importance of sustained port throughput. Under an optimal scenario with no delays, total container exports could reach 6,556, with Cape Town handling 85 percent of volume. A medium-impact scenario with delays in Week 6 drops this to 6,251 containers, while a high-impact scenario with delays in both Weeks 6 and 7 could limit exports to 4,775 containers and force greater reliance on Eastern Cape ports. These projections underscore the need for continued operational discipline and favourable weather through the peak period.
In the broader Southern Hemisphere context, South Africa’s performance contrasts sharply with competitors. Peru has exported 127 million cartons, 3 percent ahead of last year, while Chile has shipped only 8.53 million cartons, down 35 percent. Reduced Chilean supply and delayed Indian arrivals are creating additional shelf space for South African grapes in Europe during February and March, presenting a valuable window provided arrival quality remains high.
Market feedback emphasises quality as the primary driver of success amid stronger-than-expected global production and increasing buyer selectivity. Early arrivals faced some challenges, yet receiver sentiment has stayed positive, supported by long-term trading relationships. Logistics difficulties persist, and industry voices stress the importance of maintaining alternative routes beyond immediate disruption periods. A strengthening rand is expected to exert downward pressure on prices as volumes rise in the coming weeks.
Looking forward, the combination of early-region over-delivery, accelerating packing in the Berg and Hex River areas, and favourable growing conditions in most regions points to a realistic chance of exceeding the 79.4 million carton estimate, particularly if port performance continues to improve and weather cooperates through the peak. Quality will remain paramount to capitalise on market opportunities, especially in Europe, where lower competing volumes offer a competitive edge. Sustained collaboration on logistics, coupled with the industry’s focus on consistency and relationship-building, should support a successful conclusion to what is shaping up as a robust and potentially record-breaking season.
