In its latest update, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) revised downward its forecast for American sugar production in the 2025/26 season, which begins in October. Output is now projected at 9.19 million short tons (ST), reflecting a decline of 59,000 ST from the previous month’s estimate, largely due to reduced beet sugar production.

Alongside this, the USDA also trimmed its sugar consumption forecast for the 2025/26 season by 165,000 ST, bringing the total expected usage down to 12.16 million ST. The agency attributed this adjustment to softening industry demand, a trend also observed in the current 2024/25 season, where consumption was similarly cut by 165,000 ST.

“This reduction is based on the disappointingly weak pace of deliveries through the first eight months of the fiscal year, down by over 3% year-over-year,” the USDA noted in its report.

Meanwhile, the forecast for sugar imports remained nearly unchanged at 2.48 million ST.

As a result of steady import levels and weakening demand, the sugar stocks-to-use ratio—a key measure of supply adequacy—rose to 13.5%. This level is generally considered sufficient to meet market needs, according to USDA standards.