Arabfields, Habiba Masmoudi, Economic Correspondent, Tunisia — Tunisia’s olive oil industry is entering a period of uncertainty after a record-breaking harvest boosted export revenues, while early forecasts point to a sharp decline in production during the new season.

The country produced an estimated 500,000 tonnes of olive oil during the 2025/26 campaign, according to industry estimates, strengthening its position among the world’s leading producers. But agricultural organisations expect output to fall significantly in 2026/27, raising questions about farmers’ incomes, export supplies and prices in international markets.

For families across Tunisia’s olive-growing regions, the changes are more than a matter of trade statistics. The harvest provides seasonal employment for workers who pick olives, transport crops and operate presses, while small farmers depend on sales to cover production costs and support their households.

The sector’s recent performance has been reflected in export figures. Between November 2025 and August 2026, Tunisia shipped 381,200 tonnes of olive oil abroad, an increase of 50.8% compared with the same period a year earlier. Export earnings reached 4.78 billion Tunisian dinars, up 41.2%, according to figures published by the National Agricultural Observatory.

Despite the strong results, the industry continues to face a structural challenge: most exports are sold in bulk rather than in bottles carrying Tunisian brands. Packaged oil accounted for approximately 55,400 tonnes, or 14.5% of total export volumes during the first ten months of the campaign. Although packaged exports are growing, bulk shipments remain the dominant business model.

That limits the share of the final retail price retained by Tunisian producers and businesses. Expanding bottling capacity, developing recognised brands and improving access to higher-value markets could help the country earn more from each tonne exported.

The outlook for the 2026/27 harvest, however, is less encouraging. Early estimates from producer organisations range from about 200,000 to 300,000 tonnes, following last season’s exceptional output. The estimates remain preliminary, and Tunisia’s agriculture ministry has not yet issued a definitive national forecast.

A smaller crop could support prices if international demand remains strong, potentially cushioning the impact on farmers’ revenues. But the benefits will not necessarily be shared equally. Producers with limited storage capacity or urgent cash needs may have little choice but to sell quickly, while exporters could face tighter supplies and stronger competition for quality oil.

Climate conditions and the natural cycle of olive trees will also influence the final outcome. A season of abundant production is often followed by a weaker one, while irregular rainfall, water shortages and plant diseases can add further pressure on orchards.

For Tunisia, the challenge is to turn a successful export season into lasting economic gains rather than rely on exceptional harvests. Better water management, investment in processing facilities and stronger quality controls could improve resilience, while expanding sales of bottled and certified olive oil would help retain more value at home.

The coming months will determine how far the expected production decline affects prices and export earnings. If output falls towards the lower end of current estimates, Tunisia may have less oil available for foreign buyers, even as its reputation as a major supplier continues to grow.

The longer-term prospects will depend on more than the size of the next harvest. For the farmers whose livelihoods begin in the olive groves, and the businesses that sell their oil abroad, the priority is building a sector capable of delivering stable incomes through both abundant and difficult seasons.