Arabfields, Farah Benali, Economic Correspondent, China — As of January 13, 2026, the Vietnamese rice market presents a nuanced picture of stability in finished rice prices combined with a clear upward momentum in fresh paddy, particularly in the critical Mekong Delta region, which remains the heartland of the country’s rice production. Fresh paddy prices have shown a tendency to rise, driven by limited supplies in certain areas and the early, sporadic harvesting of winter-spring crops, while milled rice prices across domestic and export varieties hold steady amid slow trading activity. This dynamic reflects broader seasonal patterns, where farmers in provinces like Tay Ninh are commanding higher prices for available stocks due to constrained availability, and similar pressures are evident in scattered harvests across Can Tho, suggesting that the market is entering a phase where supply constraints could gradually exert more influence on pricing.

In the Mekong Delta, fresh paddy varieties are experiencing this upward trend most noticeably. For instance, OM 18 fresh paddy is trading between 6,500 and 6,700 Vietnamese dong per kilogram, equivalent to approximately 0.21 to 0.22 euros per kilogram or 42 to 43 Algerian dinars per kilogram, while IR 50404 fresh paddy ranges from 5,500 to 5,600 dong per kilogram, translating to roughly 0.18 euros per kilogram or 36 Algerian dinars per kilogram. OM 5451 fresh paddy sits between 5,800 and 6,000 dong per kilogram, or about 0.19 to 0.19 euros per kilogram and 37 to 39 Algerian dinars per kilogram, and Dai Thom 8 fresh paddy mirrors the higher end at 6,500 to 6,700 dong per kilogram, coming in at around 0.21 to 0.22 euros per kilogram or 42 to 43 Algerian dinars per kilogram. Lower-priced options include OM 34 fresh paddy at 5,200 to 5,400 dong per kilogram, equating to approximately 0.17 euros per kilogram or 34 Algerian dinars per kilogram, and OM 4218 fresh paddy at 6,000 to 6,200 dong per kilogram, or roughly 0.19 to 0.20 euros per kilogram and 39 Algerian dinars per kilogram. These figures, gathered from key provinces such as An Giang, indicate minimal day-to-day fluctuations but a consistent inclination toward higher levels compared to recent weeks, fueled by cautious farmer holding and reduced immediate supply.

Milled rice prices, in contrast, have maintained remarkable stability across the same regions. Dai Thom 8 rice is quoted between 8,600 and 8,750 dong per kilogram, which converts to approximately 0.28 to 0.28 euros per kilogram or 55 to 56 Algerian dinars per kilogram, while export-grade IR 504 rice holds at 7,600 to 7,750 dong per kilogram, around 0.25 euros per kilogram or 49 to 50 Algerian dinars per kilogram. Export OM 5451 rice ranges from 8,150 to 8,300 dong per kilogram, equating to about 0.26 to 0.27 euros per kilogram and 52 to 53 Algerian dinars per kilogram, and varieties like Soc Thom export rice at 7,500 to 7,600 dong per kilogram, or roughly 0.24 to 0.25 euros per kilogram and 48 to 49 Algerian dinars per kilogram, show the same steadiness. Other export types, such as CL 555 at 7,340 to 7,450 dong per kilogram, translating to 0.24 euros per kilogram or 47 to 48 Algerian dinars per kilogram, OM 380 at 7,200 to 7,300 dong per kilogram, around 0.23 to 0.24 euros per kilogram and 46 to 47 Algerian dinars per kilogram, and OM 18 at 8,500 to 8,600 dong per kilogram, or approximately 0.28 euros per kilogram and 55 Algerian dinars per kilogram, reinforce the pattern of calm in the processed rice segment. Finished IR 504 rice has seen minor weekly adjustments to 9,500 to 9,700 dong per kilogram, equivalent to 0.31 to 0.31 euros per kilogram or 61 to 62 Algerian dinars per kilogram, yet overall trading remains sluggish in areas like An Giang, Dong Thap, Vinh Long, and Ca Mau.

By-products from rice milling have displayed selective movement, with broken rice rising by around 100 dong to 7,600 to 7,700 dong per kilogram, or about 0.25 euros per kilogram and 49 Algerian dinars per kilogram, while bran holds firm between 10,000 and 11,000 dong per kilogram, coming in at roughly 0.32 to 0.36 euros per kilogram or 64 to 71 Algerian dinars per kilogram. Retail markets across Vietnam reflect even greater consistency, where premium varieties command significantly higher values without recent changes. Nang Nhen rice, the top-tier option, stands at 28,000 dong per kilogram, approximately 0.91 euros per kilogram or 180 Algerian dinars per kilogram, followed by Huong Lai at 22,000 dong per kilogram, or around 0.71 euros per kilogram and 141 Algerian dinars per kilogram. Thai long-grain fragrant rice varies from 20,000 to 22,000 dong per kilogram, equating to 0.65 to 0.71 euros per kilogram or 128 to 141 Algerian dinars per kilogram, and Nang Hoa rice at 21,000 dong per kilogram, about 0.68 euros per kilogram and 135 Algerian dinars per kilogram. More accessible fragrant options, such as jasmine at 14,000 to 15,000 dong per kilogram, translate to 0.45 to 0.49 euros per kilogram or 90 to 96 Algerian dinars per kilogram, while ordinary white rice holds at 16,000 dong per kilogram, or roughly 0.52 euros per kilogram and 103 Algerian dinars per kilogram.

On the international front, Vietnamese export rice maintains competitive positioning, with 5% broken fragrant rice priced between 420 and 440 US dollars per ton, 100% broken rice at 319 to 323 dollars per ton, and jasmine rice at 446 to 450 dollars per ton. These levels underscore Vietnam’s continued role as a major global supplier, even as domestic fresh paddy gains ground. Trading activity remains subdued across provinces, with slow transactions in Sa Dec and An Cu highlighting weak immediate demand, yet the upward pressure on fresh paddy signals potential shifts ahead.

Looking toward the future, the current upward trajectory in fresh paddy prices is poised to persist through the early months of 2026, particularly as winter-spring harvesting remains sporadic and supplies stay tight in key growing areas. Farmers’ reluctance to sell at lower rates, combined with seasonal limitations, could push fresh paddy values higher by 5 to 10 percent in the coming weeks, potentially lifting milled rice prices as processing costs rise and inventories tighten. This short-term bullishness for paddy may translate into gradual increases for domestic rice varieties by mid-year, especially if harvest yields fall short of expectations due to weather variability or input cost pressures. In regions like Tay Ninh and An Giang, where high prices are already being realized for limited stocks, this trend might accelerate, supporting farmer incomes but challenging affordability for processors and consumers.

Over a longer horizon, however, Vietnam’s rice sector faces headwinds from global surplus supplies that are expected to keep international prices under pressure throughout much of 2026. With major producers maintaining ample stocks and demand from traditional buyers showing caution, export volumes may struggle to surpass 2025 levels, potentially leading to a stabilization or modest decline in milled rice prices by the second half of the year. Domestic stability could give way to competitive adjustments if export demand softens further, yet the foundational strength from rising paddy values might provide a buffer, encouraging investment in higher-quality varieties and sustainable practices. Overall, the market’s evolution in 2026 will likely balance these domestic upward forces against international downward pressures, resulting in a resilient yet adaptive landscape for one of Vietnam’s cornerstone agricultural commodities. As the winter-spring season progresses, close monitoring of harvest progress and global trade dynamics will be essential for stakeholders navigating this evolving environment.