Arabfields, Jamel derbal, Senior Correspondent, Innovation & Sustainability, Singapore — On January 13, 2026, the global pepper market experienced a distinct shift, as prices dropped exclusively in Indonesia while holding steady in other major producing nations, hinting at a possible short-term adjustment within a context of persistent supply constraints and gradual demand recovery. This movement unfolds during the post-holiday season, when buying activity has lagged behind expectations after Christmas and New Year festivities, yet core market fundamentals continue to support prices in the coming months. To provide clearer perspective for European and North African stakeholders, particularly those operating in euros and Algerian dinars, key prices are presented alongside conversions based on mid-market exchange rates from sources like Xe and Bloomberg, where 1 US dollar approximates 0.8595 euros, 130.13 Algerian dinars, and 26,337 Vietnamese dong.
In Vietnam, the dominant global pepper exporter, domestic prices remained unchanged from the prior session, ranging between 151,000 and 152,500 Vietnamese dong per kilogram, with averages surpassing 152,000 dong, equivalent to roughly 4.93 to 4.98 euros per kilogram or 746 to 753 Algerian dinars per kilogram. Premium regions in the Central Highlands, such as Dak Lak and Dak Nong, commanded the top rates of 152,500 dong per kilogram, translating to about 4.98 euros per kilogram or 753 Algerian dinars per kilogram, underscoring the superior quality associated with these areas. Growers in Gia Lai and Binh Phuoc fetched around 151,000 dong per kilogram, or approximately 4.93 euros per kilogram and 746 Algerian dinars per kilogram, while Dong Nai and Ba Ria-Vung Tau settled at 151,500 dong per kilogram, nearing 4.95 euros per kilogram or 749 Algerian dinars per kilogram. This domestic steadiness reflects trader and farmer caution amid slow sales and a redirection of resources toward alternative crops like coffee, which offer quicker returns.
On the export front, Vietnamese pepper maintained firm positioning, with black pepper at 500 grams per liter density priced at 6,600 US dollars per tonne, converting to approximately 5,673 euros per tonne or 858,858 Algerian dinars per tonne, the 550 grams per liter grade at 6,800 dollars per tonne rising to about 5,845 euros per tonne or 884,884 Algerian dinars per tonne, and white pepper at 9,350 dollars per tonne reaching roughly 8,033 euros per tonne or 1,217,216 Algerian dinars per tonne. These levels compare closely with Malaysian offerings under ASTA standards, where Kuching black pepper held at 9,000 dollars per tonne, equating to nearly 7,736 euros per tonne or 1,171,170 Algerian dinars per tonne, and white pepper at 12,000 dollars per tonne climbing to around 10,314 euros per tonne or 1,561,560 Algerian dinars per tonne. Brazil’s ASTA 570 black pepper similarly stayed firm at 6,150 dollars per tonne, or about 5,287 euros per tonne and 800,300 Algerian dinars per tonne. Indonesia stood out as the outlier, with Lampung black pepper falling 2.09 percent to 6,574 dollars per tonne, or roughly 5,649 euros per tonne and 855,435 Algerian dinars per tonne, while Muntok white pepper declined marginally by 0.12 percent to 9,132 dollars per tonne, aligning with approximately 7,849 euros per tonne or 1,188,348 Algerian dinars per tonne. This Indonesian reversal may stem from localised issues like inconsistent harvest progress or fleeting regional surpluses.
The wider market picture reveals constrained global supply coupled with subdued demand recovery. Post-holiday procurement has been lackluster, as key importers hold back rather than rebuild stocks aggressively. In Vietnam, local trading remains sluggish, exacerbated by prospects of moderated yields in the harvest season that started in late December and runs through April. Flood damage from the previous year in the Central Highlands has sparked worries about the March peak, potentially resulting in modestly reduced production. The allure of coffee cultivation continues to pull labour and investment away from pepper, tightening domestic availability further.
Export challenges compound the situation, with Vietnamese pepper subject to rigorous pesticide residue standards in major destinations such as the European Union, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan. Intercropping practices and heightened chemical inputs to maximise yields have sometimes pushed residue levels beyond acceptable thresholds, complicating compliance and elevating prices for certified premium grades. Rising production costs, inflation, and broader economic factors, including US Federal Reserve rate decisions that have softened the dollar, add further nuance to commodity valuations.
China persists as a significant buyer, albeit purchasing more slowly than in prior years due to internal economic prudence and existing inventories. Other producers encounter their own obstacles: Indonesia grapples with patchy harvests that may curb exportable volumes, India forecasts around 85,000 tonnes for the 2025/26 cycle, offering little relief from shortages, and Brazil benefits from retained farmer stocks and inherent scarcity to sustain pricing.
Viewed through euros and Algerian dinars, these dynamics highlight pronounced structural tightness for importers in these currency areas, where gradual demand revival meets enduring supply hurdles from weather events, crop shifts, and regulatory demands. Looking into 2026, any Vietnamese harvest shortfall, especially near the March high point, could propel prices upward, potentially lifting domestic levels above 5 euros per kilogram or 760 Algerian dinars per kilogram, and pushing standard export black pepper toward 6,000 euros per tonne or over 900,000 Algerian dinars per tonne. Indonesia’s current softening might be fleeting, with a likely rebound to nearer 5,800 euros per tonne or 880,000 Algerian dinars per tonne as stocks diminish.
Macroeconomic influences, such as currency movements and central bank actions, will shape these conversions, yet fundamental supply limitations point to resilience, with euro and dinar-denominated prices inclined to rise steadily rather than fall sharply. Importers scheduling for upcoming quarters may benefit from locking in supplies at present equivalents, since postponement could mean facing steeper costs in a competitive environment for limited high-quality material.
These converging elements suggest ongoing price strength into early 2026, as climate vulnerabilities and production risks in key zones amplify the impact of any output shortfalls. Strict quality requirements from high-value markets will likely maintain premiums for compliant pepper, broadening the divide between standard and certified supplies while incentivising focus on excellence. Indonesia’s dip could reverse swiftly under harvest pressures, whereas Malaysia and Brazil’s equilibrium remains delicate, vulnerable to cross-regional spillovers.
Buyers would do well to secure positions ahead of schedule, anticipating tighter availability and heightened rivalry for stocks. Broader trends, including monetary easing and currency shifts, may enhance commodities as hedges against inflation, bolstering dollar-based values that translate into firmer euro and dinar figures. Weather uncertainties persist as a critical variable, capable of intensifying yield anxieties in the Central Highlands or elsewhere. Monitoring the Vietnamese harvest progression, particularly March results, will be essential, since confirmed reductions might spark rallies, attracting speculation and constricting export flows.
Overall, the pepper market seems geared for measured appreciation over abrupt swings, propelled by supply bottlenecks that eclipse temporary demand softness. Participants, from farmers withholding goods for better returns to importers replenishing channels, operate in a landscape favouring patience. The blend of regional difficulties, compliance barriers, and worldwide economic forces indicates robust underpinning for prices, with potential upward trajectories as harvest outcomes clarify and mid-2026 approaches. Should constraints endure without substantial offsets from alternative sources, elevated levels could persist, affirming scarcity’s role in an industry familiar with cyclical fluctuations yet currently skewed toward sustained firmness. In euro and dinar terms, this scarcity narrative resonates strongly, encouraging proactive strategies in a market where interplay between production challenges and demand currents favours ongoing support well into the future.
