Arabfields, Nadia Aïssa, Correspondent, Wellington, New Zealand — The Australian almond industry has reached an unprecedented milestone, with the value of production attaining 1.3 billion Australian dollars in the 2024-25 financial year, marking a significant achievement for one of the nation’s key horticultural sectors. This record figure emerged despite a modest decline in production volume, which decreased by 5 percent compared to the previous period, as higher market prices compensated for the reduced tonnage and propelled overall returns upward by approximately 20 percent. The surge in value reflects robust global demand, particularly from China, where exports rose dramatically by nearly 130 percent, increasing from 33,373 tonnes to 76,132 tonnes within a single financial year. As a result, China now accounts for 61 percent of Australia’s total almond exports, establishing itself as the dominant destination and underscoring the transformative impact of this market on the industry’s performance.
Several factors have converged to create favorable conditions for Australian almond growers. A relatively low exchange rate has enhanced export competitiveness, while established trade agreements with major partners such as China and India have facilitated greater market access and reduced barriers. These agreements have enabled Australian almonds to command premium pricing in competitive environments, especially in China, where imports from other major suppliers face substantial tariffs, granting Australia a distinct advantage with zero-tariff entry. Growers have benefited from the highest returns in a decade, as demand spans diverse consumption patterns in China, including almond milk, direct snacking, and industrial processing applications. Industry representatives have characterized this convergence of circumstances as an ideal scenario for the sector, with sustained interest from buyers driving elevated prices and supporting profitability even amid variable production levels.
Total export volumes for the 2024-25 period reached 140,503 tonnes, demonstrating resilience in international sales despite the slight contraction in domestic output. India remained the second-largest market, receiving 19,803 tonnes, a volume comparable to the prior year and indicative of steady demand in that region. The combination of these export achievements and favorable pricing dynamics has positioned almonds as one of Australia’s most valuable horticultural exports, contributing substantially to the broader agricultural economy and highlighting the sector’s capacity to capitalize on emerging opportunities in Asia.
Looking ahead to 2026, the industry anticipates continued expansion, supported by optimistic forecasts for production and sustained demand patterns. The national almond crop for 2026 is estimated at approximately 166,892 tonnes, representing a 7 percent increase over the preceding season’s levels and setting the stage for a potential record harvest. This projection accounts for ongoing maturation of bearing orchards and improved yield expectations in key growing regions, although some delays in picking have occurred due to rainfall in areas such as South Australia, raising minor concerns about quality factors like mould in affected zones. Should dry conditions prevail during the critical harvest window, the full potential of the crop is expected to materialize, further bolstering export availability.
Projections from authoritative sources, including the United States Department of Agriculture’s analysis of the Australian almond sector, suggest even stronger momentum in the near term. Production for the 2025-26 marketing year, which aligns closely with calendar year 2026, is forecasted to reach 175,000 metric tons, a substantial 21 percent rise from revised estimates for the previous cycle. This anticipated growth stems from recovery in growing conditions, expanded bearing acreage, and renewed investment in inputs encouraged by firmer market prices. Export volumes are correspondingly expected to achieve a historic peak of 143,000 metric tons in 2026, reflecting the industry’s orientation toward international markets and its ability to absorb increased supply without significant domestic oversupply.
China’s role is projected to remain central to this trajectory, with its share of Australian exports likely to persist at elevated levels, potentially around half or more of total shipments, driven by consistent demand growth and Australia’s competitive positioning relative to tariff-impacted suppliers. While domestic consumption in Australia accounts for roughly 20 percent of production and grows modestly in line with population trends, the overwhelming majority of additional output will continue to target export channels. These forecasts indicate a sustained upward trend for the industry through the remainder of the decade, provided external factors such as exchange rates, geopolitical stability, and climatic conditions remain supportive.
The Australian almond sector’s recent accomplishments and forward-looking projections illustrate its evolution into a globally competitive powerhouse, fueled by strategic market engagement and adaptive production practices. With China leading demand and production forecasts pointing to further records in 2026, the industry stands poised for continued prosperity, delivering substantial economic benefits to growers and reinforcing Australia’s standing in the international nut trade.
