Arabfields, Sana Dib, Financial Correspondent, Johannesburg, South Africa — South Africa is stepping up efforts to expand agricultural exports to China as growing uncertainty over its trade relationship with the United States pushes the country to seek new international markets.

The strategy is gaining momentum following China’s decision to extend zero-tariff treatment to imports from 53 African countries from May 1, 2026. For South African farmers and food exporters, the move could provide a significant opportunity to increase sales, improve competitiveness and attract investment into the agricultural sector.

The timing is particularly important after Washington announced plans to end South Africa’s eligibility for the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) from January 1, 2027. The programme has provided eligible African economies with preferential access to the US market for thousands of products.

For producers who have traditionally depended on established export destinations, the possibility of losing preferential access to the American market has added urgency to efforts to diversify overseas sales.

China, with a population of approximately 1.4 billion, is emerging as a strategic alternative. Its demand for imported food, expanding middle-income population and changing consumption habits offer opportunities for South African agricultural businesses looking to reach new customers.

One of the most promising developments is the opening of the Chinese market to South African fresh cherries. A phytosanitary agreement signed in Beijing on September 8, 2026, established the framework for South African cherry exports to China, creating a new opportunity for local growers.

The potential is considerable. China imported approximately 586,900 tonnes of cherries, valued at $3.3 billion, in 2025, making it the world’s largest import market for the fruit.

South Africa’s cherry production is also expanding. Industry projections indicate that output could rise from approximately 3,300 tonnes in the 2024/25 season to 5,100 tonnes in 2025/26, an increase of about 55%. The expansion reflects investment in orchards and the growing contribution of younger trees entering commercial production.

For farmers, however, access to a large market does not automatically translate into higher profits. Exporters must meet strict quality standards, maintain reliable supply chains and ensure that fruit reaches Chinese consumers in good condition.

The removal of import tariffs could also improve the competitiveness of other South African products. Apples, for example, previously faced an import tariff of around 10% in China. Its elimination could reduce costs for importers and give exporters greater flexibility in pricing.

Beyond cherries and apples, South Africa is looking to increase shipments of citrus, grapes, avocados, macadamia nuts, wine, stone fruit and rooibos. Opportunities may also emerge in dairy, wool and beef, depending on the completion of relevant trade and animal-health requirements.

The shift could have consequences beyond the agricultural sector. Greater export activity would create demand for packaging, transport, refrigerated storage and port services, potentially supporting employment in farming communities and logistics centres.

But several obstacles remain. Exporters have reported delays in obtaining certificates and completing administrative procedures, particularly for products requiring specialised sanitary approval. Insufficient cold-storage capacity and transportation costs could also limit the competitiveness of fresh produce.

South African businesses will additionally need to understand regional consumer preferences in China. Packaging, product sizes, branding and digital marketing are likely to play an increasingly important role in securing long-term commercial relationships.

Competition will be another challenge. Established suppliers, particularly Chile, already have a strong position in China’s cherry market. South African producers will need to coordinate harvesting and shipment schedules carefully to take advantage of seasonal demand.

Looking ahead, the outlook for South African agricultural exports to China will depend largely on how quickly market-access agreements translate into actual commercial shipments. If production continues to expand and regulatory procedures become more efficient, the country could strengthen its position in China’s imported fruit market over the next few years.

The expected increase in cherry production to 5,100 tonnes in the 2025/26 season provides an early indication of the sector’s potential. Further investment in orchards, processing facilities and refrigerated logistics could help sustain that growth beyond the current season.

For South Africa, the broader objective is not simply to replace one export destination with another. It is to build a more diversified agricultural economy, reduce exposure to trade policy changes and capture greater value from products sold internationally.

For growers preparing their next harvest, the opening of the Chinese market represents an opportunity, but one that will require investment, patience and consistent quality to turn into lasting economic gains.