Arabfields, Maleeka Kassou, East, West & Central Africa Agriculture Correspondent — Global rice production is expected to decline in the 2026/27 season, marking the first contraction in more than a decade as adverse weather conditions, lower plantings in several major exporting countries and shifting market dynamics weigh on output. While leading producers in Asia are projected to harvest smaller crops, Africa is emerging as a rare growth region for the staple grain.

According to market estimates, global rice production could fall to around 538 million tonnes in 2026/27, compared with the previous season. The decline is mainly attributed to lower harvests in key producing nations, including India, Myanmar and the United States, where farmers have reduced planted areas or faced unfavorable growing conditions.

Despite the softer global outlook, rice production across Africa continues to expand. Governments throughout West and East Africa have intensified efforts to reduce dependence on imports by investing in irrigation projects, improved seed varieties and support programs aimed at boosting domestic production.

In northern Nigeria, rice farmer Ibrahim Musa says recent investments in irrigation infrastructure have helped local producers withstand irregular rainfall patterns. “We still face challenges, but farmers are becoming more productive and better equipped than they were a few years ago,” he said during a visit to his farm outside Kano.

The continent’s growing production comes at a crucial time. Rice consumption in Africa has risen steadily over the past decade as urbanization and population growth increase demand for affordable staple foods. Several countries are now prioritizing self-sufficiency to reduce exposure to volatility in international markets.

Analysts believe Africa’s share of global rice production will continue to rise over the coming years if current investment trends are maintained. New irrigation schemes, mechanization projects and private-sector participation are expected to strengthen yields and improve resilience against climate-related disruptions.

The tightening global supply picture could also create new opportunities for African producers. Higher international prices may encourage additional planting and investment, particularly in countries with significant untapped agricultural potential.

Looking ahead, industry observers expect the global rice market to remain relatively tight through the end of the decade as consumption continues to grow faster than production in several regions. In contrast, Africa is projected to record moderate but consistent gains in output, potentially narrowing the continent’s import gap and reinforcing its role as an increasingly important contributor to global rice supplies.

While challenges related to infrastructure, financing and climate variability remain, the continent’s rice sector appears better positioned than many other regions to capitalize on changing market conditions and rising demand.