California Almond Growers Face Uncertainty Amid Trade Tensions and Tariffs
California almond growers, long accustomed to navigating the unpredictable swings of weather patterns and water availability, are now confronting a new challenge: the uncertainty brought on by escalating trade disputes. As the Trump administration imposes tariffs on goods from multiple countries and considers expanding these measures, California’s almond industry — which depends heavily on exports — finds itself in a precarious position.
With more than three-quarters of California’s almond crop destined for international markets, experts warn that tariffs could significantly alter where almonds are sold and have far-reaching consequences for the state’s economy. California dominates global almond production, accounting for approximately 80% of the world’s supply. Any disruption to this vital export industry could have ripple effects not only for farmers but also for the broader agricultural sector.
Trade Wars and Their Impact on California Almonds
China, one of the largest importers of California almonds, has already retaliated against U.S. tariffs by raising duties on American-grown almonds. These tariffs build upon those imposed during the previous administration, creating mounting pressure on growers. Now, almonds face a total tariff of 35% in China, making them significantly more expensive compared to competitors like Australia. This shift has allowed Australian almond producers to gain market share in China while California’s exports have declined.
“If we escalate trade wars with major partners such as India, the European Union, or parts of the Middle East, the California almond industry will suffer dramatically,” warned Colin Carter, an agricultural economist and professor emeritus at the University of California, Davis. “Prices will drop further, orchards may be abandoned, and farms could go up for sale throughout the Central Valley.”
President Donald Trump’s recent actions have exacerbated tensions. Within weeks of beginning his second term, he imposed 10% tariffs on Chinese goods and threatened, though temporarily delayed, 25% taxes on products from Canada and Mexico. Additionally, he has proposed reciprocal tariffs on various imports to match levies imposed by other nations on U.S. goods. Economists argue that these policies are creating a volatile environment for farmers who are already grappling with economic challenges.
In response to U.S. tariffs, trading partners have struck back. For instance, China announced additional tariffs on a range of American agricultural products, including almonds. U.S.-grown chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton will face a 15% tariff, while sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, seafood, fruits, vegetables, dairy, and almonds will see a 10% increase.
Almonds: A Cornerstone of California Agriculture
Almonds represent California’s largest agricultural export, generating $4.7 billion in revenue in 2022 alone. Approximately half of these exports were destined for key markets such as the European Union and India. Given their importance to the state’s economy, maintaining diverse export channels is critical.
“While China remains an important market, California almonds are shipped to over 100 countries worldwide,” said Rick Kushman, spokesperson for the Almond Board of California. “Diversifying our export strategy is essential to sustaining the industry.”
Despite political divides within California, many farmers in the agriculturally rich Central Valley have supported some of Trump’s policies, particularly those aimed at increasing water allocations to their fields. The region produces much of the nation’s fresh produce, including citrus fruits and almonds, and leans Republican in an otherwise predominantly Democratic state.
However, the latest round of tariffs poses a unique threat. California almonds are now subject to steep tariffs in China, making them less competitive against imports from Australia. In response, many almond exporters have pivoted to alternative markets. According to Zachary Williams, sales director for Stewart & Jasper Orchards in Newman, California, Canadian buyers are currently purchasing large quantities of almonds ahead of potential tariff increases. Meanwhile, any move by India to raise tariffs could make almonds prohibitively expensive for consumers there, further complicating efforts to stabilize demand.
The Challenge of Uncertainty
For almond growers, the tariffs themselves are just part of the problem. Perhaps the greater challenge lies in the lack of predictability facing the industry. Establishing a new almond orchard requires significant upfront investment and takes at least three years before yielding its first harvest. Farmers typically plan to cultivate these trees for two decades or more, making long-term stability crucial.
“The uncertainty surrounding future tariffs is likely a bigger issue than the tariffs themselves,” Williams explained. “Not knowing whether tariffs will be implemented—or removed—makes it difficult to plan effectively.”
As trade tensions persist, California almond growers must balance short-term risks with long-term strategies. Diversifying export markets and adapting to changing global dynamics will be essential for ensuring the resilience of this cornerstone industry. However, without clearer policy direction and relief from escalating trade conflicts, the road ahead remains fraught with challenges.
