Arabfields, Sophia Daly, Financial Analyst specialized in Agriculture and Futures Markets — The Chilean stone fruit sector closed the 2024-25 season with notable success, achieving what industry leaders described as record export levels in both volume and value for nectarines, peaches, Japanese plums, and European plums. Building on this momentum, the Chilean Stone Fruit Committee released its updated forecast in late December 2025, revealing an optimistic outlook for the upcoming 2025-26 season. Total exports of stone fruit are now projected to reach 42.9 million boxes, representing a solid 12 percent increase compared with the previous season and a 6 percent upward revision from the initial estimate. This anticipated growth stems largely from favorable weather patterns across key growing regions, which have delivered higher volumes alongside noticeably improved fruit quality, setting the stage for what could become another historic campaign.

Nectarines and Japanese plums stand out as the primary drivers of this projected expansion. Nectarine exports are expected to climb to 16.3 million boxes of 17.6 pounds each, marking a 12 percent rise over the prior season and a 7 percent improvement on the first forecast. Particularly encouraging is the performance anticipated from white-fleshed varieties, which should surge by 23 percent year-over-year, reflecting strong consumer preference in premium markets. Japanese plums follow closely behind, with shipments forecast at 17.2 million boxes of 15.4 pounds each, a 14 percent increase from last season and a 10 percent uplift from the initial projection. Red varieties within this category are poised for particularly robust growth at 17 percent. European plums are expected to reach 6 million standardized boxes of 19.8 pounds each, showing an 11 percent gain compared with the previous year despite a minor downward adjustment from the first estimate, while peaches should hit 3.4 million boxes of 17.6 pounds each, an 8 percent improvement that keeps them steady relative to earlier projections.

Market diversification remains a central pillar of the industry’s strategy, and the forecast clearly illustrates this shift. Asia continues to solidify its position as the most strategically important destination, with projected shipments climbing to 20.6 million boxes, a 10 percent increase over the previous season and a substantial 14 percent rise from the initial estimate. Within this region, white-fleshed nectarines are expected to account for nearly 7.1 million boxes, while Japanese plums should reach 6.8 million boxes, delivering an impressive 24 percent growth in that specific category on the continent. North America emerges as another area of significant expansion, with volumes anticipated at 10.4 million boxes, representing a striking 49 percent increase compared with the prior season even after a small downward revision from the first forecast. Shipments of Japanese plums to this market are projected to jump by as much as 60 percent, reaching 5.8 million boxes and underscoring the growing acceptance of Chilean fruit in the United States and Canada. In contrast, Latin America is expected to receive 4.8 million boxes, a modest 1 percent increase from the initial projection but a 15 percent decline from last season, while Europe should see 3.7 million boxes, remaining essentially flat from the first estimate and 2 percent below the previous year’s performance.

Looking further ahead, these projections signal a broader trend of steady consolidation and maturation for Chile’s stone fruit industry. The sustained focus on quality enhancement, varietal innovation, especially in white-fleshed nectarines and premium Japanese plums, combined with strategic market development, positions the country to strengthen its role as a reliable global supplier of premium summer fruit during the counter-season. Industry representatives, including Ignacio Caballero, Executive Director of the Chilean Stone Fruit Committee, have emphasized that the combination of favorable climatic conditions and deliberate efforts toward diversification will help the sector maintain its competitive edge amid intensifying international competition. While cherries, which have experienced explosive growth in recent years and are not included in the stone fruit committee’s forecast, continue to dominate headlines with their own massive volumes directed primarily toward Asia, the stone fruit category demonstrates its own capacity for consistent, quality-driven expansion.

As Chile prepares for the 2025-26 season, the industry appears well-positioned to capitalize on improving orchard productivity, refined post-harvest practices, and evolving consumer preferences in key markets. The projected 12 percent overall increase, if realized, would mark another step in the sector’s recovery and growth trajectory following challenging periods marked by climatic variability and logistical hurdles. With Asia and North America absorbing larger shares of the export pie and with varietal improvements driving higher value, Chilean stone fruit is likely to reinforce its reputation for excellence and reliability. The coming years should see continued investment in sustainable production techniques, varietal renewal, and market access initiatives, all of which will help ensure that this southern hemisphere powerhouse maintains its upward trajectory well into the late 2020s and beyond, delivering increasing volumes of high-quality nectarines, plums, and peaches to consumers around the world.