By Adel Serai, Economic Analyst Arabfields | October 15, 2025
The World Bank has released its April 2025 Commodity Markets Outlook, spotlighting the ongoing volatility in global coffee prices. Despite a slight dip in April, prices remain elevated after hitting nominal record highs earlier this year. This surge stems from a mix of supply constraints and robust demand, amplified by climate uncertainties that continue to shape the coffee market landscape.
Recent Price Trends: A Steep Upward Climb
In the opening months of 2025, coffee prices soared to impressive heights. Arabica climbed to around $9 per kilogram between February and March, while Robusta neared $6 per kilo. Though prices eased slightly in April, the overall trajectory stays firmly upward. In the first quarter of 2025, Arabica posted a 26% quarter-on-quarter gain, nearly doubling its level from the previous year. Robusta, meanwhile, rose 12% over the same stretch, marking a two-thirds increase compared to 2024.
The latest data, as of October 15, 2025, shows Arabica trading at about $3.94 per pound (roughly $8.70 per kilogram), down 1.44% from the prior day but up a striking 53.43% year-to-date. Robusta, though more volatile, tracks a similar path, with recent swings tied to harvest concerns. These lofty levels reflect persistent supply pressures, fueled by strong global demand.
Global Production: Modest Recovery, But Not Enough
World coffee production saw a modest rebound. For the 2023,2024 season, output hit about 170 million 60-kg bags, with forecasts for 2024,2025 pointing to 173 million bags. Yet these figures still lag the record highs of the 2020,2021 season. USDA estimates suggest global output for the October 2025-September 2026 coffee year could reach 178.68 million bags, a 2.45% uptick from the year before.
This tempered growth owes to better conditions in key producing nations like Brazil, where total 2024,2025 output is pegged at 69.9 million bags. Still, lingering supply shortfalls from the 2021,2022 season, paired with surging demand, especially in emerging markets and premium consumption segments, keep prices under strain.
World Bank Forecasts: 2025 Gains, Then a 2026 Pullback
The World Bank’s projections signal continued price strength in 2025. Arabica prices are set to jump more than 50% year-over-year this year, before dropping 15% in 2026 as Colombia, the world’s No. 2 Arabica producer, ramps up output. Robusta is expected to gain nearly 25% in 2025, followed by a 9% correction next year.
The Bank’s beverages index, led by coffee, is forecast to rise nearly 20% in 2025, then fall 11% in 2026 as supplies ease. These outlooks factor in improved weather and higher production in Robusta-heavy regions like Côte d’Ivoire and Uganda.
Weather Woes: A Major Market Wild Card
Climate remains the biggest wildcard. Low rainfall and high temperatures in early 2025 threaten Brazil’s 2025,2026 harvest, the top global producer. Persistent dry spells have already prompted Brazil’s Conab agency to slash Arabica forecasts to 35.2 million bags for 2025. Such risks could keep markets on edge, with potential for price spikes if conditions don’t improve.
In sum, the 2025 coffee market is defined by heightened volatility, driven by supply squeezes and resilient demand. While production recovery signs emerge, climate and geopolitical risks, like supply chain disruptions, could extend this high-price era. From farmers to consumers, industry players must tread carefully in this uncertain terrain, eyeing potential stabilization in 2026. For full details, see the World Bank’s complete report.
