Arabfields, Naïla Mokhtari, North, South and Central America Correspondent — Soybean prices have slipped in Brazil but remain at some of their strongest levels since 2023, as firm export demand and expectations for continued crushing activity provide support despite a large South American crop.

The recent decline has not erased the gains built into the market over the past year. Brazilian soybean prices averaged about $389 per tonne in the first quarter of 2026, down from roughly $417 in the final quarter of 2025, but prices have remained relatively resilient as exporters continue to benefit from strong international demand.

Brazil is entering the new marketing cycle with an unusually large supply base. The country’s 2025/26 soybean crop has been estimated at around 177 million tonnes by national supply agency Conab, while other market estimates have placed production even higher. Exports are also expected to remain close to record levels, with forecasts pointing to shipments of roughly 112 million tonnes during 2026.

For farmers, the price environment is providing some breathing room after several seasons of volatile input costs. A producer in Mato Grosso, Brazil’s leading soybean-producing state, may see a lower price on the local market, but strong yields and access to export channels can still protect margins.

The biggest uncertainty is demand from China, the world’s largest soybean importer. Brazilian exporters have benefited from their competitive position in the Chinese market, particularly when U.S. supplies became less attractive. But any improvement in trade relations between Washington and Beijing could redirect part of Chinese purchases toward the United States later in the year.

That shift could place additional pressure on Brazilian prices during the second half of 2026. Analysts estimate that Brazil needs to export around 109 million tonnes this year to prevent inventories from building excessively. With projected exports above that level, the country appears capable of clearing a large portion of its crop, provided Chinese demand remains firm.

Domestic consumption is offering another source of support. Brazil’s soybean crushing industry is expected to process close to 59 million tonnes in 2026, driven partly by stronger demand for soybean oil from the country’s expanding biofuel sector. Higher crushing activity could absorb some of the additional beans even if export demand weakens.

Global supply is also expected to remain comfortable. Larger crops in Brazil, the United States and Argentina are limiting the risk of a major shortage, while higher production has made it more difficult for soybean prices to sustain the peaks seen during periods of tighter supply.

Still, the market has several potential sources of volatility. Weather remains a key concern as farmers prepare for the next planting cycle, while changes in Chinese import demand, currency movements and U.S. acreage could quickly alter the balance between supply and consumption.

The current price pattern suggests that soybeans may remain supported rather than enter a sharp downward spiral. Strong crushing demand and biofuel consumption could establish a floor under prices, while abundant Brazilian supplies are likely to limit any sustained rally unless weather problems emerge.

For Brazilian farmers, that could mean a market of narrower but still profitable margins in the months ahead. Producers with good yields and efficient logistics are likely to remain better positioned, while those facing higher transport or financing costs could feel the impact of weaker prices more quickly.

If Brazil maintains exports above 109 million tonnes and China continues to buy aggressively, prices could remain near historically strong levels through the remainder of 2026. But if Chinese demand shifts toward U.S. soybeans while South American inventories build, Brazilian prices could face renewed pressure before the next harvest.

The immediate direction of the market will therefore depend less on Brazil’s ability to produce soybeans than on how quickly the world’s largest buyers absorb them. For now, abundant supply is limiting gains, but resilient demand is keeping the market well above the lows seen in previous cycles.