Arabfields, Naïla Mokhtari, North, South and Central America Correspondent — Chilean fruit exporters are facing renewed pressure in the U.S. market as the two countries work to resolve a 12.5% tariff that has raised concerns across an industry heavily dependent on access to North American consumers.

The dispute comes as Chile’s fruit sector enters the second half of a strong export season. Between September 2025 and July 2026, Chile exported about $9.3 billion worth of fruit, up 4.5% from the same period a year earlier, according to figures from Chile’s agricultural studies office, Odepa.

For growers and exporters, however, stronger overall exports offer little comfort if the cost of reaching the U.S. market continues to rise.

“Every additional cost eventually reaches someone in the supply chain,” said one Chilean exporter, describing the concern among producers who have spent years building relationships with American supermarkets and distributors.

The United States is particularly important for Chile’s table-grape industry. By the end of May, U.S. buyers accounted for 51.7% of Chile’s exported grape volume and 45.9% of its export value during the 2025/26 season. Yet shipments of Chilean grapes to the United States had fallen 17.8% in both volume and value compared with the previous season.

The average export value of grapes sold to the U.S. remained around $1,858 per tonne, according to Odepa, suggesting that the decline was driven more by lower volumes than by a sharp deterioration in prices.

The tariff dispute therefore arrives at a sensitive point for exporters. Chilean fruit is shipped to the United States largely during the Northern Hemisphere’s winter, allowing American consumers to maintain supplies when domestic production is limited. Industry representatives have argued that this counter-seasonal relationship makes Chilean fruit complementary rather than directly competitive with U.S. growers.

Some products have already obtained relief. Chilean avocados, kiwifruit and oranges were excluded from the new 12.5% U.S. tariff, reducing the immediate impact on several important fruit categories. Industry groups are nevertheless seeking further exemptions as negotiations continue.

The stakes extend beyond fresh fruit. Chile’s frozen fruit and vegetable exports reached a record $715 million in 2025, with the United States accounting for 44% of shipments. That concentration leaves processors and exporters particularly exposed to changes in U.S. trade policy.

The broader export figures underline the resilience of the sector. Chilean fruit exports reached $7.94 billion between September 2025 and May 2026, 3.5% higher than in the corresponding period of the previous season. By July, the figure had risen to $9.3 billion, with growth accelerating to 4.5%.

Blueberries have also provided support. During the first six months of the 2025/26 season, Chile exported $460 million worth of fresh blueberries, up 10% in value and 5% in volume. The United States represented 36% of those shipments, making it the leading destination.

The performance of other products has been mixed. Avocado exports rose 12% in value to $380 million during the same period, while volumes increased 25%. Cherries remained Chile’s largest fresh-fruit export by value, although shipments declined from the previous season’s exceptional levels.

For exporters, the challenge is now to protect market access while maintaining margins. A 12.5% tariff, if fully passed through the supply chain, could make Chilean fruit more expensive for importers and retailers and could encourage buyers to source more aggressively from competing suppliers.

The outlook will depend heavily on the negotiations between Santiago and Washington. Chile has already secured exemptions for several products, suggesting that additional agreements could reduce the effective impact of the tariff if talks continue to produce sector-specific concessions. Recent negotiations in Santiago have focused on identifying strategic products and improving market access.

Based on the current export trajectory, Chile’s fruit industry could finish the 2025/26 season above $9.5 billion in total fruit exports if the pace recorded through July is broadly maintained. That would represent another year of growth, although the final result will depend on late-season shipments, prices and the outcome of tariff negotiations.

For growers, the calculation is more immediate. A shipment leaving a Chilean orchard may travel thousands of kilometres before reaching a supermarket in the United States, and every additional charge along that route can affect the return received by the farmer.

That makes the tariff talks more than a dispute over customs duties. For an industry built around long-distance trade and narrow seasonal windows, the outcome could influence planting decisions, export destinations and investment plans well into the next season.