Arabfields, Naïla Mokhtari, Correspondent, São Paulo, Brasil — Coffee and cocoa futures began the week on a firmer note in New York, extending a recovery that has brought renewed attention to two of the world’s most closely watched soft commodities.
Arabica coffee for December delivery was trading around 295.95 cents a pound early Monday, up 2.49%, according to market data. The move follows a volatile September, when prices fell sharply before finding support near the 260 cent area. Cocoa has also regained momentum, with the December contract closing at $5,670 a metric ton on Friday, a 5.37% daily gain.
The cocoa market has been particularly sensitive to developments in West Africa. Ghana raised its producer price to $3,647 a ton for the 2026/27 season, helping to strengthen market sentiment. At the same time, concerns about weather conditions and the possible effects of El Niño are adding a layer of uncertainty for traders.
For farmers, however, higher futures prices do not necessarily translate immediately into higher earnings. In Brazil, producers are still dealing with currency movements, production costs and decisions over when to sell their crops. Some growers have preferred to hold back supplies when international prices or the Brazilian real do not offer attractive margins.
Coffee’s recovery also comes against a changing supply outlook. Brazil is expected to produce a record 66.7 million bags of coffee in 2026, according to Conab estimates cited earlier this year, with arabica production projected to rise sharply. Expectations of a larger crop have contributed to the pressure on prices, although depleted certified stocks in New York remain an important source of support.
ICE certified arabica inventories have been unusually low, at around 220,000 bags in September, far below the levels historically considered comfortable. Traders are preparing to bring more Brazilian coffee into exchange warehouses, a development that could increase available stocks and put downward pressure on futures if sufficient volumes pass certification.
The latest market movements therefore point to a delicate balance. Coffee has room for further gains if prices remain above technical support and break through the resistance zone around 291 to 300 cents a pound. A sustained move above that area could encourage additional buying and push prices toward the psychological 300 cent level.
Cocoa faces a similarly uncertain path. Stronger producer prices in Ghana and weather concerns could continue to support the market in the short term, but any improvement in West African supplies could quickly change sentiment.
For farmers and exporters, the coming months are likely to remain difficult to navigate. The combination of large expected coffee supplies, low certified stocks, currency movements and weather risks means that price swings are likely to remain a defining feature of the market.
The immediate outlook is cautiously positive, but the longer-term direction will depend increasingly on how quickly new supplies reach the market and whether weather conditions disrupt production in the world’s major growing regions.
