Arabfields, Naïla Mokhtari, North, South and Central America Correspondent — California’s almond industry is entering a new phase in 2026 as bearing acreage is expected to decline for the first time in three decades, reflecting tighter farm margins, rising production costs and years of weather-related pressure on growers.
The shift marks a notable moment for one of California’s most important agricultural industries. After 30 consecutive years of expansion, bearing almond acreage is projected to fall to about 1.39 million acres in 2026, a decline of roughly 10,000 acres, or 0.7 percent, from the previous year.
For growers across California’s Central Valley, the figures tell a story that goes beyond farmland statistics. Many producers have spent years dealing with volatile prices, expensive inputs and unpredictable weather, forcing difficult decisions about whether ageing orchards should be replanted or removed.
Almond acreage had more than tripled since the mid-1990s, rising from around 418,000 bearing acres in 1995 to approximately 1.4 million acres in 2025. The reversal in 2026 suggests that the long period of rapid expansion may have reached a turning point.
Production is also expected to edge lower. The reduction in bearing area is forecast to contribute to a decline of around 15 million pounds in almond output, although acreage is only part of the industry’s challenge.
High costs for fertilisers, pesticides and other farm inputs have continued to pressure growers. Some producers have reduced spending where possible, while others have faced difficult choices about investments in orchards already operating with narrow financial returns.
Weather has added another layer of uncertainty. California almond growers have experienced drought-related yield pressure, pollination disruptions caused by storms, periods of intense summer heat and difficult harvest conditions over recent seasons. The cumulative effect has made long-term planning increasingly challenging for farming families whose income depends heavily on the performance of a single annual crop.
Prices remain central to the industry’s outlook. Almond prices reached record levels in 2014 before falling sharply as production expanded. Prices dropped to about $1.40 per pound in 2022, putting significant pressure on growers, before recovering to an average of approximately $2.60 per pound in 2025.
That recovery has brought some relief. At an expected 2026 yield of around 1,940 pounds per acre, estimates indicate that growers would need roughly $2.25 per pound to break even. Recent prices have remained above that level, offering producers a stronger financial position than during the market downturn earlier in the decade.
The outlook for the next marketing season, however, will depend heavily on the size and quality of the 2026 harvest. A smaller crop could help support prices if demand remains resilient, while strong yields could increase available supply and limit further price gains.
The decline in acreage may also have longer-term implications. If growers continue removing older orchards faster than new trees are planted, California’s almond production capacity could gradually stabilise after decades of rapid growth. That could create a more balanced market between supply and demand, particularly if export demand continues to strengthen.
For now, the industry’s future will be decided in orchards as much as in markets. As growers move through the 2026 harvest, the quality of the crop, weather conditions and international demand will determine whether California’s almond sector is beginning a period of greater stability or entering a more prolonged phase of adjustment.
