Arabfields, Meriem Senouci, Correspondent, Hanoï, Vietnam — Vietnam’s coffee market is entering another volatile phase as prices rebound after several weeks of correction, reflecting renewed pressure on global supply chains and changing export dynamics across Asia and Latin America. Traders in the Central Highlands reported stronger buying activity during the second quarter of 2026 after domestic prices briefly dropped below 90,000 VND per kilogram earlier in the year.
Coffee prices in Vietnam climbed sharply at the beginning of 2026, with some regions reaching nearly 101,000 VND per kilogram, one of the highest levels recorded in recent years. Farmers in Dak Lak, Gia Lai and Lam Dong initially slowed sales in anticipation of additional gains, creating tighter supply conditions in local markets.
The market later entered a correction cycle as global production expectations improved, particularly in Brazil, while investors reduced speculative positions in agricultural commodities. By March and April, domestic prices had fallen by more than 30 percent from their previous peaks in certain trading sessions. Despite the decline, export activity remained strong as Vietnam continued to strengthen its position as the world’s leading robusta supplier.
According to trade data released in 2026, Vietnam exported more than 395,000 tons of coffee during the first two months of the year, generating nearly $1.9 billion in revenue. Export volume increased by more than 22 percent year over year, although average export prices declined due to international market pressure. Germany, Spain and Italy remained among the country’s largest buyers, while shipments to China recorded some of the fastest growth rates.
Coffee growers in the Central Highlands say the market remains unpredictable. Some producers continue to store inventory rather than sell immediately, hoping for another upward cycle before the next harvest season. Others are concerned about rising fertilizer costs, climate instability and weaker international pricing compared with the record highs of 2025.
Industry analysts believe the Vietnamese coffee sector could face another major transformation over the next five years. Forecasts published by commodity researchers suggest global robusta demand may continue rising through 2030 as consumers seek more affordable blends amid inflation pressures in Europe and North America. Vietnam’s coffee exports are also expected to benefit from growing consumption in Asian markets, particularly China and South Korea.
Economists warn, however, that increased production in Brazil and Indonesia could place additional pressure on international prices if weather conditions improve. Some agricultural experts predict Vietnamese coffee prices may stabilize between 85,000 and 95,000 VND per kilogram during the second half of 2026, depending on global inventories and shipping costs.
At the same time, the industry is witnessing changing consumer expectations. Discussions among coffee professionals and online communities show increasing concern over quality standards, traceability and the long term sustainability of coffee farming. Smaller growers are gradually investing in higher quality processing methods to improve export value rather than relying entirely on volume.
